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【国泰君安】柘中建设:需求充分、技术过硬的管桩行业龙头公司

國泰君安 ·  Jan 12, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company's main products are PHC pipe piles. The company was founded in 2002 and has strong competitiveness in the PHC pipe pile industry in the industry segment. It has participated in many large-scale projects, such as the Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed railway, STX (Dalian) shipbuilding base, Changxing Island shipbuilding base, etc. PHC pipe piles have won a broad market due to their high cost performance, high strength, and short production cycle. PHC pipe piles are one type of pipe pile, but their unit price is only 400 yuan/meter, and the unit price of steel pipe piles is 1,375 yuan/meter. Concrete square piles are also 23 yuan/meter higher than PHC pipe piles. PHC pipe piles are pipe piles with the lowest carrying price per unit. There is a supply and demand gap of 4.3 million meters/year for large-diameter PHC pipe piles. Due to the construction of downstream industries, ports, docks, railways, and real estate, demand for large-diameter PHC pipe piles reached 7.55 million meters/year. However, there are only 7 companies that produce large diameter PHC pipe piles, and these 7 companies have an annual production capacity of 3.25 million meters. The company is a leading company in the PHC pipe pile industry. The company has a leading edge in technology and already produces pipe piles with a diameter of 1,400 mm. Currently, the largest diameter in the world is 1200 mm. The unique technology of adding silicon powder to replace cement increases the strength of PHC pipe piles to C100. Currently, the domestic standard is C80, and the highest international strength is C120. The length of PHC pipe piles that can be produced is 7 meters to 39 meters, and the domestic standard is 35 meters. The company has a location advantage. The company is located by the Huangpu River, and transportation is superior to most companies, but compared to the CCCC Third Aviation Administration's location in Waigaoqiao, it is slightly inferior. The company's revenue situation continues to grow. The company is based in the Yangtze River Delta to explore the domestic market, and has now begun to explore the international market and win the Malaysian project. The company is committed to producing and selling large diameter pipe piles with higher technical content and higher gross margin. The gross margin is now basically stable at around 28%. Profit forecast. Based on an analysis of the industry and company, we predict that the company will achieve net profit of 57.95 million yuan, 85.65 million yuan, 11.257 million yuan from 2009 to 2011, and the corresponding EPS excluding non-recurring profit and loss is 0.40, 0.61,0.80, respectively. valuation. The average price-earnings ratio of companies in the same sector in 2010 was 28.87 times, and we think a reasonable price-earnings ratio is about 24 to 28.8 times. Considering that the inquiry range is about 15% lower than the reasonable price, the recommended inquiry range is 12.47 to 14.97 yuan. Based on the recent first-day increase of SME listed companies, we predict a 30% increase on the first day of the company's listing, and the corresponding stock price will be 16.22 to 19.46 yuan.

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