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【天相投资】赛象科技:1季度实现eps0.16元

天相投資 ·  Apr 21, 2010 00:00  · Researches

From January to March 2010, the company achieved operating income of 141 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.43%, a year-on-year decrease of 36.79%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 19.72 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.05%, a year-on-year decrease of 51.55%; and EPS of 0.16 yuan. The company's consolidated gross margin fell 2 percentage points year-on-year in the first quarter. The company's consolidated gross margin for the first quarter was 31.79%, down 2.04 percentage points from the previous year and 0.30 percentage points from the previous month. The cost rate for the period was 6.36%, down 4.51 percentage points from the previous year and up 7.60 percentage points from the previous month, of which the sales expense ratio was 3.74%, down 3.51 percentage points from the previous year and up 1.44 percentage points from the previous year; the management expenses rate was 11.99%, down 2.33 percentage points from the previous year and up 6.67 percentage points from the previous month; the financial expenses rate was 0.62%, up 1.32 percentage points from the previous year, down 0.52 percentage points from the previous month. There is still no significant recovery in exports. The company is a leading manufacturer of rubber machinery and equipment in China. Its products mainly include a series of equipment for the manufacture of heavy radial tires, a series of engineering radial tire manufacturing equipment, and other mainframe equipment and accessories. The export value of the company's products accounts for about 35% of the company's total revenue, and is mainly exported to Europe, India and other regions. Affected by the financial crisis, the company's product exports in 2009 were only 122 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 52.37% over the previous year. Looking at the present, as the main exporter of the company's products, the overall European economy has not shown a clear trend of improvement. It is estimated that the company's product exports in 2010 are still very uncertain. Optimistic about the future growth potential of the company's tooling business. The tooling jigs in the company's other mainframe equipment are new products. Currently, they are mainly used for transportation of the Airbus 320 series aircraft assembly work. In the first half of 2009, the business achieved sales revenue of 47.56 million yuan, accounting for 16.84% of operating income. Currently, the tooling and fixture business is still in the product expansion period, but considering its high gross margin and broad future development space, we are optimistic about the future growth of this business. The company will benefit from increased performance due to the release of production capacity in 2011. In order to ease the bottleneck in production capacity, the company made an initial public offering of 24 million shares in January 2010, raising 627 million yuan in project capital to expand production capacity for radial tire series equipment and other products. The project is expected to be put into operation in 2011, and the company's production capacity will increase from the current 62 sets to 171 sets. Benefiting from the rapid increase in performance brought about by the release of additional production capacity, we expect the company to achieve sales revenue of about 1 billion yuan in 2011, an increase of about 60% over 2009. Profit forecasts, investment advice, and risks. The company's 2010-2012 EPS is expected to be 0.99 yuan, 1.41 yuan, and 1.83 yuan respectively. Based on the current closing price of 34.16 yuan, the dynamic P/E is 35 times, 24 times, and 19 times respectively. The valuations are relatively high, so we will maintain a “neutral” investment rating for the time being. The company's risk is mainly reflected in the risk that the return on the fund-raising project will not meet expectations, the risk of export uncertainty, and the exchange rate risk.

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