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【天相投资】赛象科技:募资项目2011年投产,公司将迎来收获期

天相投資 ·  Apr 2, 2010 00:00  · Researches

From January to December 2009, the company achieved operating income of 622 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.83%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 102 million yuan, an increase of 13.79% over the previous year; EPS was 0.85 yuan, better than our forecast of 0.77 yuan; and a payout of 2.5 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares. In the fourth quarter, the company achieved operating income of 223 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.09% and a year-on-month increase of 92.28%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 40.71 million yuan, compared to -1.17 million yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 1.97 times over the previous year; and EPS of 0.34 yuan. In 2009, the fee rate decreased by 5.26 percentage points over the same period last year, and the company reduced revenue without loss of profit. In 2009, the company's comprehensive gross margin was 31.17%, which is basically the same as 2008. The period expense ratio was 12.28%, down 5.26 percentage points from the previous year. The cost rate during the benefit period was drastically reduced, and the company reduced revenue without loss of profit. The decline in the company's expense ratio during the period was mainly due to a decrease in the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio. There is still considerable uncertainty about exports. The company is a leading manufacturer of rubber machinery and equipment in China. Its products mainly include a series of equipment for the manufacture of heavy radial tires, a series of engineering radial tire manufacturing equipment, and other mainframe equipment and accessories. The export value of the company's products accounts for about 35% of the company's total revenue, and is mainly exported to Europe, India and other regions. Affected by the financial crisis, the company's product exports in 2009 were only 122 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 52.37% over the previous year. Looking at the present, as the main exporter of the company's products, the overall European economy has not shown a clear trend of improvement, and has recently fallen into a debt crisis. We expect that the company's 2010 product exports are still very uncertain. The fixture business is expected to become a new profit growth point for the company. The tooling jigs in the company's other mainframe equipment are new products. Currently, they are mainly used for transportation of the Airbus 320 series aircraft assembly work. In the first half of 2009, the business achieved sales revenue of 47.56 million yuan, accounting for 16.84% of operating income. Currently, the tooling and fixture business is still in the product expansion period, but considering its high gross margin and broad future development space, we are optimistic about the future growth of this business. The fund-raising project was put into operation in 2011, and the company will enter a harvest period. The company's actual production/design capacity ratio is currently about 3.5 times, and there is already a serious shortage of production capacity. To this end, the company made an initial public offering of 24 million shares in January 2010, raising 627 million yuan in project capital to expand production capacity for radial tire series equipment and other products. The project is expected to be put into operation in 2011, and the company's production capacity will increase from the current 62 sets to 171 sets. Benefiting from the rapid increase in performance brought about by the release of additional production capacity, we expect the company to achieve sales revenue of about 1 billion yuan in 2011, an increase of about 60% over 2009. Profit forecasts, investment advice, and risks. The company's 2010 and 2011 EPS are estimated to be 0.98 yuan and 1.41 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 38.13 yuan on April 1, the dynamic P/E is 39 times and 27 times respectively. The valuations are relatively high. We have given a “neutral” investment rating for the time being. The company's risk is mainly reflected in the risk that the return on the fund-raising project will not meet expectations, the risk of export uncertainty, and the exchange rate risk.

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