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【招商证券】人人乐:业绩难高增长,股价催化看高管激励改善

[China Merchants Securities] Everyone is happy: Performance is difficult to grow, and stock price catalysis depends on improvements in executive incentives

招商證券 ·  Jun 17, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The company achieved revenue of 12.716 billion in 13 years, down 1.53% from the same period last year, and the net profit of shareholders belonging to listed companies was 24 million, up 126.41% from the same period last year. 14Q1 realized revenue of 3.419 billion, down 3.64% from the same period last year, and realized net profit belonging to listed companies of 24 million, an increase of 3.07% over the same period last year. After the early peak of shop closure, the company turns losses into profits, and the profit level tends to be normalized, but the current prosperity of the supermarket industry is low, the pressure of labor costs is still high, and the profitability of the company is still at a low level.

Comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 0.69% to 20.99% year-on-year in 2013 to 20.99%. 1Q gross profit margin in 2014 increased by 1.46% to 21.64% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the company's achievements in category management optimization and centralized procurement. The comprehensive gross profit margin has been improved for seven consecutive quarters, and the company is more effective in tapping internal potential in the context of depressed revenue.

The rate of sales management expenses fell by 0.44% to 19.76% in 2013, which rose 1.3% to 19.77% year-on-year in 2014, on the one hand, due to the decline in fees brought about by the closure of underperforming stores, and on the other hand, labor and rental costs continued to rise. coupled with the decline in same-store growth, the expense rate is still rising.

From a regional point of view, income in South China fell sharply by 6.12% in 2013, including 8.7% in Guangdong Province, 6% in Northwest China, 1.2% in Southwest China, 6.2% in North China, and still downward in South China. We judge that the main reason is that the low-end people mainly located by the company have a relatively obvious trend of returning to the central and western regions in South China.

Looking to the future, the company will maintain the expansion strategy of community stores in first-and second-tier cities and hypermarkets in third-and fourth-tier cities. It is expected that 10 new stores will be added every year, with an area growth rate of about 8%. In the context of oversupply and e-commerce diversion, the company is expected to face more serious diversion pressure in the next few years, especially the same store growth pressure in Guangdong will continue. In the past 14 years, the company still focuses on the improvement of internal efficiency with cost control as the core, and labor and rental costs are the core factors affecting the recovery of the company's net interest rate.

We estimate that the EPS of the company in 2014-16 is 0.06,0.07,0.07 yuan, and the compound growth rate is relatively low. Give a neutral-B investment rating. The catalyst of the company's stock price also lies in the improvement of the governance structure brought about by the successful implementation of the executive incentive program.

Risk factors: the economic downturn affects consumer confidence and the pressure of regional competition increases.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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