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【天相投资】赛象科技:上半年业绩低于预期,预计下半年将有所好转

天相投資 ·  Aug 10, 2010 00:00  · Researches

From January to June 2010, the company achieved operating income of 259 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.35%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 384.376 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.86%, and EPS of 0.32 yuan. In the second quarter, the company achieved operating income of 118 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.32%, a year-on-year decline of 16.68%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 18.714,600 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 49.83%, a year-on-year decline of 5.11%, and an EPS of 0.16 yuan. The company's performance fell short of our expectations. Performance in the second half of the year is expected to be better than the first half of the year. The company's main products are a series of equipment for the production of heavy radial tires, a series of equipment for the production of engineering radial tires, and other equipment. Its revenue for the first half of the year was 107 million yuan, 82 million yuan, and 61 million yuan respectively, up 2.36%, down 1.01%, and down 28.12% from the same period last year. In the first half of the year, sales of the company's other equipment declined sharply as the Airbus A320 project was nearing completion. The Airbus A320 follow-up project is expected to start in the second half of the year, and according to the company's current orders and production schedule, the company's performance in the second half of the year is expected to be better than the first half of the year. The company's overall gross margin declined markedly. From January to June 2010, the company's consolidated gross margin was 28.96%, down 2.46 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the gross margin of the company's radial tire manufacturing series equipment fell sharply by 21 percentage points to 15.13% year on year, which is the main reason for the decline in the company's gross margin. In the first half of the year, the company's new giant engineering radial tire equipment was in the trial production stage, and the cost was high. We expect that with mass production of new equipment and further optimization of costs, the company's gross margin will rise somewhat in the second half of the year. Research and development investment increased, and the company's management expense ratio increased by 4 percentage points over the same period last year. From January to June 2010, the company's fee rate for the period was 17.37%, up 3.70 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the management expense ratio was 12.71%, up 3.85 percentage points from the previous year. The fund-raising project is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2012, later than expected. In order to ease the bottleneck in production capacity, the company's initial public offering in January 2010 raised 627 million yuan in project capital to expand the production capacity of 110 sets of radial tire series equipment and other products. The project is expected to be put into operation in 2012, which is later than 2011 as we had previously determined. Profit forecasts, investment advice, and risks. Considering that the company's performance was lower than expected and that the fund-raising project was delayed, the company's EPS for 2010-2012 was lowered to 0.80 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.28 yuan respectively. Based on the current closing price of 31.76 yuan, the dynamic P/E was 39 times, 32 times, and 25 times, respectively, maintaining a “neutral” investment rating. The company's risks are mainly reflected in the risk that the progress of the fund-raising project will be delayed again, and the risk that the next order for the Airbus A320 will decline significantly.

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