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【申银万国】新朋股份:与上海大众合作盈利驱动要素将发生重大变化

申萬宏源 ·  Apr 21, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Give an increase in holdings rating. We expect the company's earnings per share for 10 to 12 years to be 0.75 yuan, 0.94 yuan, and 1.47 yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-earnings ratio is 31 times, 24 times, and 16 times, and PB is 3.4 times. The company will benefit from export recovery in the short term, and there is strong certainty in performance growth. Becoming a first-class supplier to Shanghai will change the driving factors for the company's future profit. It is expected that the company's auto parts will experience rapid growth in 2012, with high performance elasticity. At the same time, the company also has potential growth points of a “low carbon economy”. We believe that the company's growth is far better than that of small and medium markets in comparable industries. The average level gives the company a rating of increasing holdings. Cooperation with Shanghai Dazhong will lead to major changes in future profit drivers, and 2012 may usher in a period of rapid growth. With sheet metal stamping technology as the core, the company has achieved diversified expansion through synergy. The company has successfully entered the first-class supplier system of Shanghai Volkswagen. We expect that this cooperation with Shanghai Dazhong will, on the one hand, show that the company's technical strength meets the requirements of joint venture brand automakers, and on the other hand, it will change the company's profit structure. With the increase in supply volume to Shanghai Volkswagen, the auto parts business will become one of the company's important sources of profit in the future. Under a neutral assumption, the joint venture company EPS will achieve growth of about 55% in 2012, and even under pessimistic assumptions, it may achieve growth of about 40%. We believe that by establishing a joint venture with Shanghai Volkswagen to enter the auto parts industry, it is likely that the company will experience rapid growth in 2012. Brushless motors and cooperation with A123 are potential growth points for the company. The company is developing brushless motors. If the development is successful, then the “low carbon economy” will no longer be a concept, but may become another growth point for the company's performance. Currently, the company and A123 have two projects, including a new energy vehicle battery metal shell structural component project and a small power transmission, transformation, and energy enhancement base station metal structural component project. This cooperation not only allows the company to enter the field of new energy vehicles, but also gives the company an opportunity to cooperate with SAIC Motor Group in the field of new energy. Export-oriented benefits from global economic recovery, with steady growth in 2010. The company's main customers are all international industry leaders, and performance fluctuations are relatively small (against the backdrop of a decline in exports in 2009, export orders for cooling plates, the company's main product, still achieved a year-on-year increase of 18%); if the global economy recovers in 2010, the company's exports will benefit, and steady growth is expected. The main risk. Risk of fluctuations in export business, risk of rising raw material prices, risk of future fluctuations in the automobile industry.

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