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【申银万国证券】北新路桥:区域路桥建设龙头,畅享新疆投资盛宴

申萬宏源 ·  Jul 6, 2011 00:00  · Researches

Give an “increase in holdings” rating: The company's EPS for the years 11 and 12 is expected to be 0.46 and 0.64 yuan respectively. We believe that highway construction is an important way to ensure the export of energy in Xinjiang and achieve leapfrog growth. As a leader in road and bridge construction in Xinjiang, the company can enjoy more than 30% growth in the next 3-5 years. It should enjoy a high valuation and give it an “increased holding” rating. The target price is 19 yuan, which is equivalent to 30 times PE in 12 years and 41 times PE in 11 years. Xinjiang plans to invest 35 billion yuan in highways in the 11th year. The company has outstanding competitiveness, enjoys a market share of more than 15%, and its gross margin is higher than the average of road and bridge companies: the 11th Xinjiang Highway Construction Plan completed an investment of 35 billion yuan, an increase of 41% over the previous year, and the planned road investment during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is 120-140 billion yuan. Currently, there are no enterprises with special qualifications in Xinjiang. There are a total of 8 enterprises with first-class qualifications, and Beixin Luqiao is the only listed company among them. As a leader in road and bridge construction in Xinjiang, the company's market share is over 15%. Even without considering the company's overseas markets, revenue can reach the level of 5 billion yuan. With the unique competitive advantages of local leaders, the company's gross margin is higher than that of most road and bridge peers, and is expected to remain around 12% for the next five years. Public issuance enhances capital strength, and innovation orientation further enhances competitiveness: The company has been approved to publicly issue no more than 50 million shares and raised no more than RMB 400 million. At the same time, the company has followed the innovative path of project-driven scientific research. In 10 years, the company has applied for a total of 12 patents, and has now obtained 8 authorized utility model patents. We believe that with the increase in capital and technical strength, the company's qualifications are expected to be further improved, enhancing the company's ability to expand its business and extend its industrial chain. The catalyst for stock price performance: Under the rising enthusiasm for investment in Xinjiang, the company is likely to obtain more large EPC general contract contracts; with its capital strength and technology accumulation, the company is likely to obtain higher qualifications and further strengthen its competitiveness; use its technical capital strength to expand the industrial chain and share more of the investment feast in Xinjiang. Risks mainly come from bad accounts receivable, construction risks, revenue settlement progress that is lower than expected, etc.

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