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【山西证券】湘鄂情:减持刚刚开始,2013年业绩增长有压力

山西證券 ·  Feb 6, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The controlling shareholder of the company and its co-operator, Kezhou Xiangeqing, reduced their holdings of the company's shares by 10 million shares through a bulk trading platform on February 4 (Monday). The average price of the reduction was 9.21 yuan per share. The review holdings reduction plan has just begun. The company announced on January 15 that the controlling shareholder plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 100 million shares within 6 months from January 18 due to its own development needs. On February 4, only 10 million shares were reduced. The holdings reduction plan has just begun, and it is estimated that the holdings reduction will continue until July 18. The stock price fell by nearly 19% in response to the forecast of a reduction in holdings. Since the company announced the controlling shareholder's pre-reduction announcement on January 15, the stock price has been falling all the way, from the highest price of 11.35 yuan to 9.37 yuan. The decline reached nearly 19%, indicating investors' voting attitude on their expectations of reducing holdings. This is also partly due to the country's promotion of opposition to the impact of excessive waste on the restaurant industry. Profit forecasts and ratings: We believe the company has strong market pricing and cost control capabilities. The company is in the process of development and transformation. Assuming that the company's targeted issuance is completed in the first half of 2013, we maintain our previous profit forecast. We believe that in 2012, the company's net profit reached about 140 million yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.35 yuan in 2012. The company's current stock price is 9.59 yuan, corresponding PE is 27. If the additional distribution is completed in 2013 and the company's transformation is successful after the merger and acquisition, we believe that due to opposition to official consumption, the company's future revenue growth will be lower than our previous expectations. Assuming that future revenue will maintain a 15% increase, due to share capital expansion, the 2013 EPS will be 0.37 yuan, and the 2014 EPS will be 0.51 yuan. The corresponding stock price of 9.59 yuan is 26 and 19 times the valuation. The company's introduction of strategic investors in December 2012 changed the company's capital structure, improved the company's debt costs, and is beneficial to the company's long-term development. We believe that the company's development has reached a new level. Strategic investors are also optimistic about the company's long-term investment value, but in the short term, the company faces the risk of declining performance and the risk of controlling shareholders' holdings being reduced. 2013 was probably the most difficult year for the company, and we continued to maintain the company rating as an “gain” rating. Risk factors: risk of management integration entering new markets, slow merger and acquisition progress than expected, food safety risks, and other uncertain risks.

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