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【民族证券】北新路桥2010年中报点评

民族證券 ·  Aug 4, 2010 00:00  · Researches

1. In the first half of 2010, the company achieved operating income of 1,112 billion yuan, an increase of 21.85% over the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 28.24 million yuan, an increase of 12.66% over the previous year; and earnings per share of 0.15 yuan. The company's net profit for January-September is expected to increase by 10%-30% year-on-year. 2. Performance analysis: (1) Revenue growth was mainly driven by foreign projects: due to rain disasters in southern regions such as Hunan and Sichuan, as well as snow and cold weather in the Xinjiang region, revenue from these domestic projects still fell 22% year on year; driven by generous orders, especially projects in Algeria, foreign project revenue still increased 61% year on year. (2) Due to factors such as domestic rain and snow disasters, foreign political turmoil, and ethnic conflicts, etc., the gross margin fell 1.98 percentage points to 10.56% year on year due to work stoppages and lost work. 3. Strong demand will drive rapid growth in performance. (1) In recent years, the implementation of the Western Development Policy has been stepped up, and investment in fixed assets on highways in the western region has grown rapidly; driven by the leapfrog development of Xinjiang's economy, investment in highway construction will double in the “12th Five-Year Plan”. The company is a leader in highway construction in the western region and will benefit from it. (2) Developing countries in Central Asia, Africa and other regions have strong demand for highway infrastructure, and related investment is increasing year by year; China has increased its financial aid and government loans to them, providing good opportunities for Chinese enterprises. (3) At the end of 09, the company did not confirm part of the implementation contract of 4.9 billion yuan, and since 2010, it has signed a new contract amount of 6.4 billion yuan. Abundant contracts in hand will guarantee the company's future growth. At the same time, the company is shifting to high-end markets such as EPC, BT, and BOT to obtain higher added value. 4. Profit forecast and rating: The company's 10-12 EPS is expected to be 0.39 yuan, 0.64 yuan, and 1.00 yuan respectively, corresponding to dynamic price-earnings ratios of 70, 42, and 27 times, and the valuation advantage is not obvious; considering the driving role of western and Xinjiang construction, it is given a “careful recommendation” rating and focuses on transactional opportunities. 5. Risk warning: foreign political turmoil, exchange rate risk, natural disasters.

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