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【中金公司】北新路桥:西部大开发的受益者

中金股份 ·  Jul 29, 2010 00:00  · Researches

Investment highlights: Backed by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps: The company was founded by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Construction Engineering Group. Currently, it is one of the largest and most powerful large-scale highway engineering construction enterprises in the autonomous region. The company's business scope covers high-grade road engineering, bridge engineering, tunnel engineering and international bidding projects. The market is mainly distributed in western China and Central Asia, South Asia, Africa and other countries. Outstanding main business: The company's main business is engineering construction, including roads, bridges, tunnels, etc., and the engineering construction business contributes more than 98% to the company's revenue and gross profit. In 2009, the company's gross profit margin for engineering construction was 10%, which is at the industry average level. Beneficiaries of the development of the western region: Historically, the projects constructed by the company in China were mainly concentrated in 12 western provinces and regions, including Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, and Chongqing, while at the same time focusing on infrastructure such as roads and bridges, which will be the beneficiaries of the development of the western region and the acceleration of infrastructure construction in the western region. Cooperating with large domestic enterprises to expand overseas, the geographical advantage is outstanding: the company began expanding overseas markets in 2004, and with its geographical advantages, the company has successfully entered many countries. At the same time, in order to avoid competition with domestic enterprises on the same stage in foreign engineering markets, the company signed supplementary agreements and strategic cooperation agreements with CITIC Guohua and China Road and Bridge, agreeing to prioritize cooperation with these large enterprises in the form of construction or forming consortia under the same conditions, so there is broad scope for future overseas market expansion. There are plenty of on-hand orders to support its development over the next 2-3 years: up to now, the company has signed new contracts in 2010 with an amount of more than 5 billion yuan, and on-hand orders of more than 8 billion yuan, which is enough to support development over the next 2-3 years. Financial forecast: We expect the company's net profit in 2010, 2011 and 2012 to reach 0.85, 120 and 156 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 45.5%, 40.4% and 30.6%, respectively, corresponding to earnings of 0.45, 0.63 and 0.83 yuan per share. Valuation and recommendations: Under current stock prices, the company's corresponding PE for 2010, 2011, and 2012 is 61.3, 43.7, and 33.4 times, respectively, and is located in the high-end of the construction sector. Risk: Investment growth in the Xinjiang region falls short of expectations.

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