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【华泰联合证券】北新路桥:疆内业务如期爆发

華泰聯合證券 ·  Aug 29, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company announced its semi-annual report on August 25, 2011. Operating income and net profit attributable to listed companies reached 1,135 billion yuan and 28.6868 million yuan respectively, up 2.03% and 7.29% year-on-year respectively, which is basically in line with our expectations. On January 18, 2011, the People's Congress of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region officially approved the 12th Five-Year Plan. By the end of 2015, the per capita GDP of Xinjiang will reach the national average. During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, Xinjiang plans to invest 3.6 trillion yuan in fixed assets, three times that of the 11th Five-Year Plan period. It is estimated that the fixed asset investment for highway construction in Xinjiang during the 12th Five-Year Plan period will reach 150-250 billion yuan, 2.5-4 times that of the 11th Five-Year Plan period. The planned construction of 4,000 kilometers of highways is four times the highway traffic mileage at the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan period; the planned construction of 15,500 kilometers of high-grade highways is more than three times that of the 11th Five-Year Plan period. The company's foreign revenue for the first half of 2011 decreased by 53.28% year on year, mainly because the company's Algeria and Pakistan projects have been completed and are yet to be settled, resulting in a sharp decline in revenue. Domestic business revenue increased 124.53% year on year, mainly due to the sharp increase in revenue in the Chongqing area and the Xinjiang area, which increased 169.39% and 225.05% year on year respectively. The sharp increase in revenue in the Xinjiang region was the reason why construction in Xinjiang began to accelerate in 2011, and the company's orders in the Xinjiang region were full, in line with the expectations of our previous report. We still maintain expectations that the company's business in the Xinjiang region will experience rapid growth during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. The company issued an additional 24.9066 million A-shares during the reporting period, raising a net capital of 399,999,996.00 yuan. The capital raised will be used to invest in the BT project of Chongqing Hechuan Farmers' Venture Park. We believe that the Chongqing Hechuan project is only the beginning of the company's entry into high-end business. In the future, the company will make full use of diversified financing methods to undertake more high-end projects such as BT and BOT to obtain higher benefits. We forecast that the company's operating income for 2011-2013 was 3.419 billion yuan, 4.892 billion yuan and 6.64 billion yuan respectively, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 93 million yuan, 156 million yuan and 218 million yuan respectively, with a 3-year compound growth rate of 43%, corresponding EPS of 0.43 yuan, 0.73 yuan and 1.02 yuan, respectively, and corresponding PE of 43.2X, 25.8X and 18.5X respectively, maintaining a rating of increased holdings. Risk warning: Business expansion in Xinjiang fell short of expectations, construction was stopped due to weather factors, and foreign projects were shut down or gross margin declined due to political factors

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