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【申银万国证券】宇顺电子:OGS屏量产恰逢其时,触屏产业链一体化打造公司竞争优势

申萬宏源 ·  Mar 22, 2013 00:00  · Researches

The touch screen industry continued to be prosperous in 2013. Consumer electronics products will continue to grow rapidly in 2013. Looking at the touch screen industry as a whole, driven by consumer electronics demand and the increase in touch screen penetration, there is a high degree of certainty that the growth rate will continue to rise; judging from the touch screen demand structure, smartphones will penetrate the middle and low end in 2013, and annual shipments are expected to increase 35% to 907 million units. Medium-sized touch screens will usher in an explosion period, and downstream ultrabook and tablet shipments are expected to increase 381% and 50%, respectively, to 50 million units and 159 million units, respectively. With both internal and external aspects, an opportunity for OGS program development is coming. Two changes in 2013 will spawn good opportunities for the development of OGS solutions. Change 1: Judging from the OGS program itself, the manufacturer's yield climb has basically been completed. After the yield increases and costs are reduced, the good cost performance ratio highlights the advantages of the OGS solution; Change 2: From the perspective of consumption structure, the penetration of smartphones into the middle and low end in 2013 provided room for entry into OGS, while various electronics manufacturers gradually focused on the tablet and supermarket markets. As can be seen from comparative analysis and practical understanding, OGS has a large comparative advantage in medium to large touch screen applications, and industry demand in 2013 It's a probable event. Taking into account the demand for ultrabooks, tablets, and smartphones, we expect OGS touch screen demand to reach 317 million units in 2013, an increase of 502% over the demand for 53 million tablets in 2012. Business adjustments are in place, and the company's performance will reverse losses and achieve growth this year. The company's CTP, LENS, and CTP+TFT product systems have been basically completed. In 2013, when OGS production capacity is tight, the certainty of receiving orders and the scale of production capacity will determine who can quickly overtake cars. The company has successfully obtained large orders from ZTE Kangxun. It is expected to achieve most sales this year, and order certainty is guaranteed; at the same time, the advantages of industrial chain integration guarantee that the company occupies a competitive position. We believe that the management's forward-looking vision will ensure that the company's 2012 reserves blossom and achieve loss-turning growth this year. For the first time, an “accumulation” rating was given. Benefiting from changes in the downstream consumer electronics demand structure, the OGS program ushered in a good development opportunity. We are optimistic about the growth potential of the company's touch screen products. We expect to achieve earnings per share of 1.70 yuan, 0.81 yuan, and 1.18 yuan in 2012-2014. The current stock price corresponds to 20 times PE in 2013 and 14 times PE in 2014. The company's industrial chain integration advantages are conducive to coordination and integration, efficiency and fee reduction. There is a high probability of reversal of losses and rapid growth in 2013. Future growth is worth looking forward to. We gave the company 25 times PE in 2013, with a target price of 20.25.

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