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【申银万国】大东南:塑料薄膜包装龙头企业,静待行业回暖

申萬宏源 ·  Jul 28, 2008 00:00  · Researches

IPO Overview. 64 million shares in circulation were issued at a price of 5.28 yuan, of which 51.2 million shares were issued online (winning rate 0.058%) and 12.8 million offline shares (placement ratio was 1.146%). After the issuance, the actual controllers, Huang Yongshou and his son, still indirectly held 60.19% of the company's shares and were in an absolute controlling position. The film business is the company's main source of revenue and profit. The company is mainly engaged in the production of BOPP, BOPET, CPP and other films. Among them, the BOPP film business is the company's current core business, accounting for more than 50% of the company's revenue and gross profit. In recent years, the company's production scale has continued to expand, and its main revenue has continued to grow. However, as the company gradually increased the production of incoming processed products, operating income showed a downward trend. In mid-2008, it achieved revenue of 604 million yuan, a decrease of 10.3% over the previous year. The company's gross margin has clearly rebounded, and pressure on raw materials is still there. The plastic packaging film industry experienced a “severe winter” in 2005, and the company's gross margin was only 5.84%. In recent years, as the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry has abated, combined with the company's size advantage, product structure optimization, and increased incoming material processing to avoid raw material risks, gross margin has clearly rebounded, reaching 13.43% in mid-2008. However, high crude oil prices still put pressure on the company's raw materials. The company has a strong competitive advantage and is waiting for the industry to warm up. The company's main product output ranks in the top three in the industry. It has advanced equipment and technology, and has obvious regional advantages. Currently, the overall production capacity of the industry is still excessive, so we need to pay attention to the integration process. Reduce debt repayment risks and financial expenses by raising capital. The company's fund-raising projects are mainly used to repay bank loans, which can effectively control the company's financial expenses and debt repayment risks and enhance the company's profitability. Risk factors: raw material price fluctuation risk, preferential tax policies, risk market competition risk, debt repayment and financial risk. The reasonable value range is 6.2-7.2 yuan. We expect the company's fully diluted EPS to be 0.31, 0.36, and 0.48 yuan in 2008. According to a reasonable PE of 20 times in 2008, the company's current reasonable value range is 6.2-7.2 yuan. If you look at the average increase (about 60%) of SME companies in similar industries on the first day of listing, the price on the first day of listing in Dadongnan may be around 8.5 yuan.

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