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【国联证券】北化股份新股研究报告

國聯證券 ·  May 26, 2008 00:00  · Researches

The company is the largest manufacturer of nitrocellulose in the world. It has ranked first in the world in terms of production and sales for many years. It is one of the three executive committee units of the World Nitrocotton Industry Association, and is a leading enterprise in the domestic and international nitrocellulose industry. The company is mainly engaged in the production and sale of nitrocellulose series products. Nitrocellulose is an ester in a huge family of cellulose derivatives. It is widely used in various fields such as coatings, inks, sporting goods, cosmetics, etc., and mainly produces nitrocellulose series products of more than 70 different specifications, including H-type nitrocellulose, L-type nitrocellulose, and energy-containing nitrocellulose. The company has formed a complete industrial system integrating production, sales, and research and development of nitrocellulose. Benefiting from the rapid growth of the cosmetics and cosmetic packaging industry, focusing on the plastic packaging products market for famous domestic and foreign cosmetic brands; the company occupies a leading position in the domestic industry and has obvious competitive advantages; the barriers to entry into the industry are high, and future market competition is fierce, and survival of the fittest. Risk factors: risk of increased market competition, risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, market risk of capital raising investment projects. Referring to the company's current project acceptance situation and profitability, we expect the company's earnings per share for 08-09 to be 0.32, 0.41, and 0.58 yuan after dilution, respectively. Currently, there are no listed cosmetic plastic packaging companies in China. Considering the technical content of products in the cosmetic packaging industry and the relatively high added value of products, which can be given a certain amount of premium space, we believe that the reasonable PE for this stock in 2008 should be between 27 and 32 times, and the corresponding reasonable price is 8.64 to 10.24 yuan. About 500 billion dollars is expected to participate in the purchase in the near future, and the winning rate is around 0.05%. Referring to the recent rise on the first day of IPO listing, the first-day increase is expected to reach about 80%. Considering the relatively high issue price, we expect the price on the first day of listing to reach 12.5-14 yuan.

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