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【宏源证券】奥维通信:互联网养老急先锋,成长路径渐明晰

宏源證券 ·  Jul 14, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Mainstream enterprises in the domestic network optimization industry are driving performance growth due to a reversal in the bottom of the industry boom. Demand for 3G network optimization in the industry continued to decline after reaching a peak in 2011-2013, and 4G investment began in 2013. The network optimization industry is about to reverse and enter an upward cycle. As a mainstream enterprise in the industry, the company's related business will benefit from the upward trend in industry prosperity and return to growth. The old-age care industry has broad market space and is poised to develop. Judging from the experience of developed countries, the old-age care industry is huge. China has already entered an aging society, and the old-age care industry is still in its infancy, and there is broad room for growth. In the future, with the further deepening of aging and government policies, the old-age care industry will develop rapidly. Join forces with the Committee on Aging to create a national information platform for old-age care. The company has already launched old-age services in Nanjing, Tianjin, Gansu and Lijiang. After cooperating with the Aging Commission, the company can use the Commission's policies and resource advantages to promote off-site expansion, adding further support to future development. Platform positioning strategies and the ability to innovate business models provide a long-term competitive advantage. The strategy of building a comprehensive service platform for the elderly, combined with good execution and continuous business innovation, will enable the company to become the controller in the value chain of the old-age care industry and form a long-term competitive advantage. Risk analysis: Competition in the network optimization industry is fierce, and the profitability of the industry has not risen as much as expected; the innovation of the old-age care business model has failed; and the pace of promotion of the old-age care business throughout the country has fallen short of expectations. Profit forecast and investment value: We expect the company's EPS from 2014 to 2016 to be $0.18, $0.26, and $0.36, respectively, with corresponding price-earnings ratios of 44.0, 29.6, and 21.4. We are optimistic about the development of the pension industry. For the first time, we have given it an “increase in holdings” rating, with a target price of 11 yuan for 6 months.

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