Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and raise the target price to 42 yuan. The market is lack of awareness of the special industry status of snow carp, and the company is the leader of the channel access platform for small and medium-sized mobile games CP, sitting on a large amount of user data, and has great potential to carry out accurate game distribution. We maintain the EPS of 0.19, 0.23 and 0.27 yuan from 2015 to 2017 (if the combination of snow carp is completed, the EPS is 0.33, 0.42 and 0.52). Refer to comparable companies in the industry (average market capitalization 13 billion). In view of the special status of the channel access platform created by snow carp, which has a large amount of personalized data for users, it gives a certain valuation premium, that is, 15 billion market capitalization, and raises the target price to 42 yuan (+ 43%). There is 43% room for the current stock price to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Snow carp is not only a mobile phone developer, but also a channel access platform business. Snow carp was once one of the largest developers of functional games in China. In July 2014, snow carp seized the pain points of the industry and launched online channel access platform (easy to connect) and payment service business, providing a convenient way for small and medium-sized CP developers to save labor costs and improve promotion efficiency. As of March 31, 2015, there were 937 mobile game developers on the easy platform, which is still increasing at the rate of 200-300 per month, and the number of online channels for docking has reached 112.
Massive personalized player data is an inexhaustible "treasure" of snow carp game distribution business. We believe that the current easy-to-connect platform to focus on small and medium-sized CP developers is "intoxicated". In the process of serving small and medium-sized CP developers, the easy-to-connect platform has accumulated a huge amount of player data, which is estimated to cover more than 40 million users, and is still increasing at the rate of hundreds of thousands per day. The huge amount of personalized data of game players is an inexhaustible "treasure" for the easy-to-connect platform to carry out game distribution and precision marketing business in the future.
Catalyst: snow carp carries out game distribution business and is successful; Ovie adds code to mobile Internet.
Risk hint: the progress of the integration of acquisition targets is unfavorable, and the competition in the network market is further intensified.
