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【中信证券】达意隆2011年年报点评:业绩虽低预期,前景仍值期待

中信證券 ·  Apr 20, 2012 00:00  · Researches

Net profit in 2011 increased 11.0% year on year, lower than market expectations. The company achieved operating income of 677 million yuan in 2011, an increase of 24.8% over the previous year; and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 52.27 million yuan, an increase of 11.0% over the previous year. Earnings per share were 0.27 yuan, lower than market expectations. Revenue continued to grow steadily. The company has stepped up its efforts to develop domestic and foreign markets, and its main business revenue has achieved a steady growth of 24.8%. Among them, domestic sales revenue increased 14.9% year on year due to the influence of the country's macro-control policy, and domestic sales revenue increased 14.9% year on year; foreign sales showed a steady upward trend, with foreign sales revenue increasing 93.3% year on year. Negative investment returns and slow progress in the new beverage processing model are the main reasons why the performance fell short of expectations. The company's investment income in 2011 was negative 3.75 million yuan, a decrease of 5.8 million yuan over the previous year due to the loss of the subsidiary's injection molding company, which is an important reason why its performance fell short of expectations. It is expected that with market development and management improvements, the performance of the subsidiary's injection molding will improve in the future. The progress of the new beverage processing model has been slower than market expectations. By the end of 2011, the company had built 3 beverage processing lines. Of these, the Shenzhen processing line had begun to make a normal profit, but the remaining two lines were still losing money because they were in a run-in period, so it is expected that profits will begin in 2012. Although the progress of the new beverage processing model has been slower than expected, future development prospects are still worth looking forward to. The two bottled water production lines signed by the company with Coca Cola and a beverage production line contract with Jianlibao indicate that the company has taken solid steps in its new model of downstream expansion. Although progress has been slower than expected, future development prospects are still worth looking forward to. With further market development and customer recognition, we expect the company's new model to become an important profit growth point for the company in the future. Risk factors: New model promotion progress, raw material fluctuations, and exchange rate fluctuations. Maintain a “buy” rating. Considering the huge development potential of the beverage industry and the company's good development prospects, we expect the company's earnings per share in 2012-2014 to be 0.40 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.69 yuan respectively (the previous 2013 forecast was 0.60 yuan), with an average annual growth rate of more than 30%. We believe that Dayilong's reasonable price-earnings ratio in 2012 could be 30 times, corresponding to the stock price of 12.00 yuan. The current stock price is underestimated, so we maintain the company's “buy” rating.

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