Main points of investment:
The heavy industry has been the most profitable industry for 17 years in a row. Dalian heavy Industry Crane Group, which plans to issue additional shares, has ranked first in profit scale among heavy industry enterprises such as CFHI Group, Erzhong Group and Taizhong Group under China heavy Machinery Industry Association for 17 years in a row. it shows the company's continued strong profitability and corporate management and cultural accumulation behind it.
Management shareholding stimulates entrepreneurship. After holding shares, the management participates in the management of the company with an entrepreneurial mentality, and its degree of dedication and execution is much stronger than that of state-owned enterprises, even not with private enterprises. This is the fundamental reason why Sinovel has been ranked first in the heavy industry machinery industry for 17 consecutive years, and Sinovel has become the first wind turbine manufacturer in China and the top three wind turbine manufacturers in the world in five or six years.
Traditional business is growing against the trend. In order to cope with the slowdown in the growth of metallurgical machinery in the company's traditional business, the company seized the policy opportunity of high pressure in the national coking industry and timely launched the international leading energy-saving and environment-friendly coke oven machinery, which won a large number of orders and became the beneficiaries of industrial upgrading. In order to expand the market share of cranes, we have launched a series of light cranes with optimized design, strongly expanding new areas and seizing market share from international manufacturers Demag and Kony. At present, the company has sufficient orders for metallurgical machinery and cranes, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 20% in the next three years.
There is a lot of room for import substitution for new business. The company is the largest supplier of wind power accessories in China, and is in a leading position in the production of key components such as wind power electric control system, gearbox, pitch control system and so on. Electric control system and other wind power core accessories import replacement space is huge, will begin to resume growth next year. At the same time, the company is also a leading manufacturer of large marine crankshafts, shield machines and high-end castings and forgings. These products are in a period of rapid import substitution and have great potential for growth in the future.
Profit forecast and valuation. Metallurgical machinery and wind power accessories will grow next year, with reference to the company's commitment to performance, assuming the completion of additional issuance in 2011, we predict that the company's fully diluted earnings per share in 2011-2013 will be 2.08,2.36 and 2.60 yuan, respectively. The average price-to-earnings ratio of similar companies, including CFHI, is 30 times, 22 times and 18 times respectively, and the median price-to-earnings ratio is 24 times, 17 times and 15 times respectively. Even according to conservative principles, Sinovel cast steel can support a price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times earnings in 2011, with a reasonable price of 40.16 yuan.
Differences:
The wind power industry will continue to grow by more than 20% in the next 3-5 years. The development of nuclear power in China
