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【万联证券】特尔佳调研简报:关键还是政策

萬聯證券 ·  Sep 13, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The company's momentum is good at this stage, and the company's orders are stable at this stage, and the market momentum is good, showing the characteristics of a peak sales season. The management expense ratio and sales expense ratio declined significantly in the first half of the year, and the company's management expense ratio and sales expense ratio decreased by 4.4% and 6.5% year-on-year respectively in the first half of the year. The gross margin can basically remain stable. Affected by the rise in raw material enameled wire prices, the company's gross margin fell 3.6 percentage points year on year in the first half of the year. However, the company's gross margin is still as high as 36.8%. We believe that the company's products still have a large competitive advantage in terms of brands and some core technologies, and that the company's gross margin will remain basically stable in recent years. There are no bottlenecks in the company's production capacity in the short term. The design capacity of hardware facilities such as the company's plant is 50,000 units, while the production capacity that can be used immediately is about 30,000 units. Unless demand explodes, there are no short-term bottlenecks in the company's production capacity. The company's hydraulic retarder is in the process of being developed, and there is no clear final launch schedule. The company's biggest opportunity is the introduction of relevant policies. We think this is the biggest development opportunity for the company in recent years, but the timing and content of the policy is currently unknown. Raise the company's rating to “increase in holdings.” Without considering effective breakthroughs in the truck market, we maintain our original profit forecast: the EPS for 2010-12 was 0.21 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.29 yuan, respectively. At this stage, the company's dynamic PE in 2010—12 is 58 times, 51 times, and 41 times, respectively. However, considering the company's huge potential for development in the truck market and strong expectations for the introduction of related policies, we raised the company's rating from “wait-and-see” to “increased holdings.” Risk warning: If the relevant automobile retarder policy is introduced later than expected or the relevant content falls short of expectations, the company's truck market development may be seriously hindered; the company's products are very uniform, and the company's current products are not suitable for new energy vehicles such as pure electric or hybrid vehicles. If domestic new energy buses and trucks advance strongly and progress quickly, the company will face major business risks.

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