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【华泰证券】飞马国际:三季度收入低于预期,供应链拓展受资金限制

華泰證券 ·  Oct 24, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The main business revenue for the third quarter fell short of expectations. In the third quarter, the company achieved main business revenue of 88,800 yuan, an increase of 78.09% over the same period last year, and the revenue increase fell short of expectations; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 6.7589 million yuan, an increase of 6.39% over the same period last year; and achieved basic earnings per share of 0.025 yuan. Credit tightening limits profit and scale growth: This year and next two years will be a period of rapid expansion of the company's coal trade execution business. Since coal trade execution involves a large amount of upstream and downstream advance capital, the cost of capital opportunities is high, and it is difficult for the expansion of business volume to lead to an increase in actual profit, we believe that the company's net profit in 2011 will fall short of previous market expectations. There was a marked increase in the number of letters of credit issued by companies and bank acceptance notes issued by companies this year. The balance of notes payable at the end of the third quarter reached 3.651 billion yuan, an increase of 143.91% over the beginning of the period. Against the backdrop of the tightening of credit across the country in the third quarter, the company's revenue growth may be limited by credit limits. Considering the company's 3-4 month account turnover, we believe there should be a significant month-on-month increase in revenue in the fourth quarter. We expect the execution revenue of coal trade for the full year of 2011 to reach around 6 billion dollars. The blue ocean strategy for the coal supply chain requires a long-term layout: the geographical imbalance between China's coal output and demand is extremely unbalanced, and the imbalance trend is still increasing. This has led to huge demand for West-east coal transportation, and the potential demand for the coal supply chain market laid out by the company is huge. However, since both upstream and downstream enterprises in the coal power industry are very strong, the company needs to operate for a long time, and reach a certain business scale to have sufficient influence on both up and down channels in order to form a stable profit model. At present, the company has entered into the coal trade execution business of enterprises under the Datang Power Generation Group, and the prospects for business expansion are promising. Profit forecast and valuation: We forecast the company's operating income for 2011-2013 to be 69.06, 94.24 and 12.435 billion yuan respectively, EPS of 0.24, 0.29 and 0.37 yuan, respectively, and dynamic price-earnings ratios of 31.10, 25.39 and 20.08 times. We believe that once the company's coal supply chain network is built and a stable profit model is formed, it is a good time to step in. We gave the company a “wait-and-see” rating, giving the company a reasonable price-earnings ratio of 28 times in 2011 and a target price of 6.62 yuan.

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