The company's business development is still skewed towards the coal supply chain, and the energy resources supply chain gradually involves non-ferrous metals. The company's coal supply chain business model mainly realizes centralized procurement (large-scale procurement, integration of resources) and centralized supply in the chain from coal procurement (large-scale coal plants, distributors) to coal sales (mainly terminal power plants), reflects supply chain management value in integrated resources, and obtains service fees and some excess revenue. The company's coal suppliers are mainly Beijing Datang Fuel Co., Ltd., accounting for more than 50%. In 2011, coal imports accounted for about 30% of the company's total volume, with Indonesia, Australia and other regions as the main import source; in 2012, the coal supply management business was still the main development direction. While seeking further in-depth cooperation with the Datang system, it tried to obtain cooperation with suppliers such as Shenhua. The company's coal business development in 11 years did not reach the target. We believe it was mainly affected by the two factors of monetary tightening, the tight capital chain of the company, and the relative slowdown in coal demand growth in 2011. Although the company optimistically expects revenue to reach 10 billion dollars for the full year of 2012, due to industrial restructuring, economic growth is slowing down, and overall coal demand growth is slowing down. It is estimated that the company's coal supply chain business scale will reach 7.5 billion in 12 years, and the total business scale will exceed 8.1 billion dollars. The company's energy resources supply chain business gradually involves copper, aluminum, etc., but the current amount is relatively small. We believe that although the company's current coal business is expanding rapidly, the depth of cooperation with upstream and downstream is still insufficient, the company's movement of exchanging profits for market space still exists, and the company's current coal supply chain business is still marginal or even unprofitable. Affected by this, the inflection point in the company's performance still needs to be waited for. Inflationary pressure eased in 2012, and pressure on the company's financial costs decreased. In 2011, the company's loan interest rate generally rose 20% from the benchmark, and the company's financial costs rose sharply; since entering 2012, the company's overall credit limit was within 4 to 5 billion dollars, and credit was gradually relaxed. Currently, the company's interest rate on some loans has increased 10% from the benchmark, and the discount interest rate on notes is about 6%, and the pressure on the company's financial costs has decreased compared to 2011. The company's other businesses are shrinking slightly, and future growth depends on the coal supply chain. The company currently has 12 subsidiaries. Currently, the company's two IT and electronic trade execution business platforms are still the main profit contributors. Affected by factors such as the slowdown in IT and electronics manufacturing growth and industrial migration, this part of the business showed negative growth in 11 years, and the business volume is expected to continue to decline in 12 years. We expect the company's integrated logistics business and logistics park business to remain relatively stable; at the same time, we expect the company's integrated logistics business and logistics park business to remain relatively stable, so the company's future performance breakthroughs are highly dependent on the coal supply chain business. Valuation and investment recommendations. The company is optimistic that the business scale will reach 10 billion yuan in 2012. Since the growth rate of the company's IT, electronic trade execution business and integrated logistics business may decline, the coal supply chain business will maintain a state of rapid expansion, but its weak position makes it still difficult to release profits. We expect the company to achieve operating income of 8.1 billion yuan, 10.8 billion yuan, and 13.9 billion yuan in 12-14 years. The company can achieve earnings per share of 0.32 yuan, 0.51 yuan and 0.69 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE is 23 times, 15 times and 11 times, respectively. The valuation is relatively reasonable. ” Ratings.