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【国都证券】达意隆公司投资价值分析:包装领域横向纵向开拓,公司业绩稳步增长

國都證券 ·  Jul 1, 2012 09:00  · Researches

Producer of total packaging solutions. The company is a leading enterprise in the beverage packaging machinery industry in China. Its main products are filling production lines, fully automatic high-speed PET bottle blowing machines, and secondary packaging equipment. The company can provide overall solutions for liquid packaging from filling to packaging, and transform from a single equipment provider to a service provider that provides customers with a supply chain system for PET bottles that fit their customers. Currently, the company's additional fund-raising projects such as secondary equipment will reach production, and it is expected that this year it will yield benefits. Beverage sales are growing rapidly, and demand for PET continues to expand. Sales in China's beverage industry are growing rapidly. In 2011, China's soft drink production was about 11.76 million tons, an increase of 22% over the previous year. The year-on-year growth rates for refined tea, carbonated drinks, drinking water, and fruit and vegetable juices were 37.83%, 26.46%, 25.67%, and 8.66%, respectively. The annual consumption of soft drinks per capita in China is only about 8 kilograms, which is 1/5 of the world average, and 1/24 of that of developed countries in Western Europe. There is huge room for development in the Chinese beverage market. PET bottles have the advantages of light weight, good preservation, heat resistance, pressure resistance, low environmental pollution and low energy consumption, etc., and are the beverage packaging materials with the greatest potential for growth. The continuous growth of beverage sales is leading to the growth of bottle-blowing equipment. The non-beverage market segment brings new room for the company to develop. In 2011, China's beer production reached 489.882 million tons. If 10% to 15% of the beer bottles produced in China were converted to polyester bottles, the demand for polyester bottle slices would increase by about 20%. In addition to plastic beer bottles, applications in the fields of pesticide, medicine, and daily chemical product packaging are constantly expanding. The amount of PET used per capita in China is far below that of developed countries, and demand for polyester bottles for packaging in China is expected to grow by double digits every year. At the same time, the company continues to seek canning business in the non-beverage sector, and the company has in-depth cooperation with P&G, Arowana, Haitian Soy Sauce, etc. Secondary packaging has a lot of market space in terms of reducing costs, improving flexibility, and meeting customer needs, and future growth can be expected. Earnings forecasts and ratings. We expect the EPS for 2012-2014 to be 0.32 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.51 yuan, respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price on July 2 is 25 times, 18 times, and 15 times, respectively; we give it a “recommended-A” rating. Risk warning: Due to intense market competition, packaging equipment business growth is lower than expected.

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