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【平安证券】合肥城建:从兴泰控股看合肥城建的投资价值

平安證券 ·  May 25, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points to create a comprehensive financial holding platform. Xingtai Holdings is a regional comprehensive financial holding platform. Its business scope already covers 13 financial and pan-financial fields such as banks, securities, insurance, credit guarantees, asset management, equity transactions, trusts, funds, financial leasing, pawnbrokers, venture capital funds, venture capital, and venture capital. It owns Huishang Bank, Guoyuan Securities, Jianxin Trust, Huafu Fund, Guoyuan Agricultural Insurance, Xingtai Financial Leasing, Xingtai Finance Guarantee, Xingtai Capital, Xingtai Asset, Xingtai Hong Kong, etc. As of the end of 2014, Xingtai Holdings had a registered capital of 2 billion yuan, total assets of 12.7 billion yuan, and net assets of 5.6 billion yuan, of which financial assets accounted for 90%. In 2014, Xingtai Holdings achieved operating income of 770 million yuan and net profit of 440 million yuan. A benchmark for state-owned enterprise reform in Hefei, the only financial control integration platform at the municipal level. Xingtai Holdings is the sole financial control platform for state-owned assets in Hefei. In the future, it will strengthen the integration of financial assets at the municipal level and district and county in accordance with the principle of “the same main business, similar industry, relevant industry, and complementary advantages”. Currently, Hefei Guokong has transferred all of its financing guarantee companies to Xingtai Holdings. Small loan companies, asset management companies, venture capital firms, and financing guarantee companies under Hefei Industrial Control may all be invested in Xingtai Holdings. In the future, Xingtai Holdings will strengthen the integration of state-owned financial assets in districts, counties, and operating districts. As of the end of June 2014, enterprises belonging to the Hefei State-owned Assets Administration Commission had total assets of 345.9 billion yuan and net assets of 137.5 billion yuan. Assuming that financial assets account for 10%, there is room to double the stock consolidation of Xingtai Holdings. Actively expand emerging businesses, and the rise of internet finance. Xingtai Holdings is actively expanding emerging businesses, and Internet financial P2P platforms have risen. On January 28, 2015, Xingtai Wealth Online, a subsidiary of Xingtai Holdings, was launched. With a pure state-owned background, strong shareholder support, strict risk control system, and strong guarantee institutions, Xingtai Wealth Network developed rapidly. The first bid of Xingtai Wealth Network sold out in 9 minutes; the 2 bids were sold out in 17 seconds, refreshing P2P platforms in the province to grab the mark. As of the end of March 2015, Xingtai Wealth Network had 488 registered users and 230 valid registered users. The total deposit capital was 19.3 million yuan, and the platform's fund balance at the end of the quarter was 6.78 million yuan. Since its establishment, Xingtai Wealth Network has accumulated a turnover of 20 million yuan, with an average monthly turnover of 5 million yuan. Internet finance is expected to bring a “double hit” to Xingtai Holdings' performance and valuation, and there is huge room for “incremental addition.” Valuation and investment suggestions: We have classified and valued the assets of various sectors under Xingtai Holdings. According to estimates, the overall valuation of Xingtai Holdings is about 12.5 billion yuan. Our valuation does not include Hefei state-owned financial assets and Xingtai Wealth Network, which do not include Xingtai. We believe that Xingtai Holdings' “stock consolidation space” is at least 1 times greater, and that internet finance is expected to bring about a “Davis double hit” in terms of performance and valuation. We are optimistic about Xingtai Holdings' stock integration space and emerging business expansion, and the platform value of Hefei Urban Construction will increase accordingly. The estimated earnings per share of Hefei Construction in 2015-2017 will be 0.70 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 0.89 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on May 22, 2015 will be 34 times, 33 times, and 27 times, respectively, and the PB will be 4.57 times, 4.08 times, and 3.60 times, respectively. Maintaining the “Highly Recommended” rating for urban construction in Hefei, the target price is 30 yuan, corresponding to 43 times the 2015 dynamic PE. Risk warning: The risk of policy changes in the real estate market, risks such as macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations, falling short of expectations in the reform of state-owned enterprises in Hefei, and the slow asset injection process.

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