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【万联证券】特尔佳中报点评:短期估值过高

萬聯證券 ·  Aug 24, 2010 00:00  · Researches

In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 96.33 million yuan, an increase of 82% over the same period last year, and the year-on-year growth rate of the company's revenue was significantly higher than that of the downstream industry. We believe that the reason for the sharp increase in the company's revenue is due, on the one hand, to the growth in the downstream passenger industry, and on the other hand, the increase in the penetration rate of the company's products in the downstream industry. This shows that the domestic influence of the company's products is constantly increasing. The company's gross margin declined, and the company's gross margin in the first half of the year fell 3.6 percentage points year-on-year due to the rise in the price of enameled wire raw materials. However, the company's gross margin is still as high as 36.8%. We believe that the company's products still have great advantages, and there are large barriers to outsiders. The probability that the company will continue to grow is high in the second half of the year. In particular, the fourth quarter is the peak sales season for large and medium customers. The company's sales situation is basically in sync with that of large and medium customers. We expect the company's sales situation in the second half of the year to still be relatively good, but due to base reasons, the year-on-year sales growth rate in the second half of the year will decline. Looking at the medium to long term, we believe that benefiting from the continuous increase in China's urbanization rate, large and medium customers will maintain a growth rate of 10-15% in the next five years, and the company's sales growth rate should be higher than this rate. Also, the company's biggest focus is the development of the truck market. The company is now stepping up its development of the truck market. If it can effectively break through the truck market, there will be a qualitative leap in the company's sales scale. The short-term valuation is too high, and it is given a “wait-and-see” rating. It is optimistic about the company's truck market development prospects in the medium to long term, so you can pay active attention. We have raised our original profit forecast for the company. The EPS for 2010-12 was 0.21 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.29 yuan respectively (the original forecast was 0.175 yuan after dilution in 2010). At this stage, the price-earnings ratio in 2010 is about 55 times. Short-term companies are overvalued and given a “wait-and-see” rating. However, we are optimistic about the development prospects of the company's truck market in the medium to long term, and we will raise our ratings in a timely manner according to the company's progress in this area or the introduction of relevant policies.

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