share_log

【天相投资】特尔佳:受益大中客车市场持续回暖,公司2010年增长步伐或将加快

天相投資 ·  Apr 20, 2010 00:00  · Researches

From January to December 2009, the company achieved operating income of 166 million yuan, an increase of 8.33% over the previous year; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 28.01 million yuan, an increase of 13.01% over the previous year, and EPS of 0.27 yuan, in line with expectations; 2 bonus shares were distributed for every 10 shares, 1 yuan (tax included), and transferred to 8 shares for every 10 shares from the capital reserve fund. In the fourth quarter, the company achieved operating income of 67.71 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.55%, an increase of 15.78%; net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 6.43 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.42%, a decrease of 53% over the previous year, and an EPS of 0.06 yuan. The company's consolidated gross margin in 2009 increased by 6 percentage points over the same period last year. In 2009, the company's consolidated gross margin was 39.8%, up 5.68 percentage points from the previous year. The company's main raw material is enameled copper wire. Against the backdrop of inflation expectations and rising copper prices, we expect the company's comprehensive gross margin to fall to around 37% in 2010. The fee rate for the period decreased by 2 percentage points year over year. In 2009, the company's period expense ratio was 22.34%, down 2.18 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 11.47%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous year, the management expense rate was 12.18%, down 1.07 percentage points from the previous year, and the financial expenses rate was -1.32%, compared to -1.07% in the same period last year. Benefiting from the continued recovery of the large and medium bus markets, the pace of the company's growth may accelerate in 2010. The company mainly produces three retarder products: B type, R type and M type. Among them, the B type and R type are mainly used for large and medium-sized buses, while the M type is used for heavy cargo trucks. Since heavy-duty cargo trucks are a newly opened distribution market, the majority of the company's revenue comes from B-type and R-type retarders supporting the bus market. In 2009, the company's B series retarder achieved sales revenue of 103 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.53%; R series retarders achieved sales revenue of 53 million yuan, an increase of 37.66% over the previous year. From January to March 2010, the country sold 22,800 large and medium-sized buses, an increase of 81.56% over the previous year, with an average monthly sales of 7,616 vehicles, up from the 2009 average of 7,402. Sales figures continued to improve. Against the backdrop of continued growth in sales of large and medium buses driven by the recovery in passenger tourism, we expect that while R series retarders continue to maintain steady growth, the sales growth rate of B series retarders will pick up at the same time, and the pace of the company's revenue growth in 2010 is expected to accelerate. Earnings forecasts, investment advice, and risks. The company's 2010-2012 EPS is expected to be 0.33 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively. Based on the current closing price of 19.43 yuan, the dynamic P/E is 60 times, 46 times, and 36 times, respectively. We are optimistic about the company's long-term growth, but considering that the current valuation is relatively high, the company's investment rating has been temporarily lowered to “neutral.” The company's risks are mainly reflected in the risk of declining profitability due to the rise in the price of the raw material copper, and the risk that sales volume in the large and medium bus market falls short of expectations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment