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【申银万国证券】广百股份:商业小幅下滑,小贷及理财贡献业绩,关注广州国企改革

申萬宏源 ·  Oct 27, 2014 00:00  · Researches

The performance was in line with expectations. In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 5.440 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.90%, a year-on-year increase of 164 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.72%, a year-on-year increase of 1.56%, a weighted average ROE of 7.22%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points over the same period last year, and EPS of 0.48 yuan; of these, 14Q3 achieved revenue of 1,503 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.17%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.10%; net profit of 29.16 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.22% 。 Meets our expectations. Active adjustments have helped to reduce income slightly and are superior to peers. The company achieved revenue of 5.44 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.90%, of which 14Q3 achieved revenue of 1,503 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.17%. Due to sluggish consumption, e-commerce shocks, and the three public restrictions, most retail enterprises in Guangdong still experienced a decline in revenue in the third quarter. The company withstood the pressure and actively reformed and upgraded its stores, laying out differentiated competition through building one store, one policy; at the same time, the contribution of the GBF Beijing Road Gold and Jewelry Store, which opened in '13, gradually increased; active adjustments helped the company's revenue decline slightly under unfavorable conditions, which was significantly superior to peers within the region, demonstrating the management's ability to operate the business well. Sales expenses are well controlled, and cost pressure is easing. The company's annual expense ratio for the first three quarters was 14.40%, a decrease of 0.67 percentage points from the same period last year; among them, the sales expense ratio was 12.75%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points from the same period last year, mainly due to good control of utilities, depreciation expenses, etc.; the management expense ratio was 1.57%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points over the same period last year; and the financial expenses rate was 0.09%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points over the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in interest income from current wealth management products, etc. Small loans and wealth management products help increase performance. In the first three quarters, the company achieved net profit of 164 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.72%, and a non-net profit of 142 million, an increase of 1.56% over the previous year, a net interest rate of 2.94%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points over the same period last year, an increase of 2.61% over the same period last year, and an increase of 0.14 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, Guangbai Small Loans and the company's wealth management products contributed about 21.75 million in total revenue, greatly increasing the company's profits. Excluding non-recurring profits and losses, the company passed management expense control this year, and the overall net interest rate also improved. Join hands with Ali to promote Guangbaibao and actively lay out O2O. In October, the company officially cooperated with Ali to launch the “Guangbaibao” electronic membership card, actively lay out the mobile payment field, carry out strategic exploration of the O2O model, and utilize vast and powerful offline resources combined with e-commerce online data advantages to open up traffic, membership, and payment links to achieve integration of sales, membership and data, and gain an advantage in regional competition. Currently, the Guangbai O2O project has been put into operation at Beijing Road Store, Tianhe Zhongyi Store, Xinyicheng Store, and Gold Jewelry Building. In the future, it may expand to all stores that are rich in extracorporeal assets and directly benefit from the national reform. The company's predecessor was the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce, and now it belongs to Guangbai Group. The actual controller is the Guangzhou Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission, which has assets such as storage and transportation, real estate, automobile trade, auctions, resorts, etc., and has not yet entered the listed company. There is a possibility of multi-faceted asset integration, which is the target of high-quality state-owned enterprise reform; Guangzhou Friendship, which also belongs to the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Administration Commission, was suspended on September 1, beginning the reform of Guangzhou state-owned enterprises. As an established state-owned enterprise, the company's operating efficiency is at a low level within the industry, and there is a lot of room for improvement in the future. There is a lot of room for improvement in the future. Incentives and other methods to improve company efficiency 。 Maintain profit forecasts and maintain increased holdings. The company has expanded rapidly since 2009 and has a leading advantage in Guangdong Province, and its revenue and profit growth is significantly superior to that of its regional peers. At the same time, under the general environment of declining traditional commerce, the company is actively transforming O2O and promoting the construction of the Guangbaihui platform and WeChat platform. At the same time, through cooperation with Ali to build the “Guangbaibao” electronic membership card, it helps the company expand its competitive advantage in the region. Furthermore, as a direct profit target of Guangzhou's state-owned enterprise reform, the company may have room for valuation improvement in the future. We expect EPS in 14-16 to be 0.66, 0.66, and 0.67 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 16, 16, and 16 times, maintaining the “increased holdings” rating.

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