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【广证恒生咨询】粤传媒:并购香榭丽,开启整合LED广告新征程

廣證恆生諮詢 ·  Jan 9, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The economy is expanding slightly, and the stability of newspapers and advertising is beneficial to industry leaders. The economy stabilized in the second half of 2013, and the advertising market as a whole achieved a growth rate of 5%-6%. As the “Guangzhou Daily”, which has ranked at the top of the domestic print media in terms of advertising revenue for 19 consecutive years, its circulation is ranked first among newspapers in the country. Therefore, its advertising and marketing capabilities and media pricing capabilities have a large premium margin, and the company's advertising revenue is expected to rise steadily in 2013. Advertising revenue in 2014 came from two major profit points: (1) “Community Newspapers” have opened 12 companies, and regional advertising revenue channels are growing rapidly; (2) “Elderly Daily” has increased the pace of expansion outside the province. With the advent of the aging trend, advertising growth in this market segment continues to rise. The acquisition of Champs-Elysées begins a new journey of integrating LED advertising. The company acquired Shanghai Champs-Elysées in October and officially entered the LED outdoor advertising market. Currently, the concentration of the LED advertising market is not high, and investment factors and brand resources can all be developed and shared in multiple ways. It has economies of scale, and the integration trend is very strong. Currently, the market share of Champs Elysées is about 15%, and the network is widely distributed. With its position as the earliest pioneer, it has the ability to integrate the market. According to the gamble agreement at the time of mergers and acquisitions, Champs Elysées's profit for the next three years will not be less than 56.83 million yuan, 68.7 million yuan, and 81.56 million yuan, with an average growth rate of 20%. Considering the integration of the resources of the two companies after the merger and acquisition and the incentive mechanism for implementation, we believe that it is quite feasible to complete performance. When big data is laid out and e-commerce projects are incubated. The company started with paper media, and the strategic development of diversified development and transformation has already been determined. We are optimistic about e-commerce channel development centered around big data: relying on “Soccer News”, there is plenty of room for Yuncai Lottery. The company's “Soccer News” has a weekly circulation of 5.4 million copies, making it the sports newspaper with the largest circulation and the most authoritative coverage in China; among them, the soccer lottery special “Soccer Winner” has a circulation of more than 1 million copies per issue, making it the soccer lottery magazine with the highest circulation in China. With the help of existing paper media platforms, the Yuncai Lottery, which was launched in October 2013, has a huge audience base. Currently, the market share of online lottery ticket sales is only 9%, and is expected to rise to 30% in 2023, about 20 billion yuan, with a market space of more than 10 billion yuan in the middle. “Home Delivery” opens up online and offline platforms, and uses the Guangzhou Daily distribution site to achieve efficient last-mile delivery services. Currently, shopping malls mainly provide department stores and household products, with the intention of building the “Guangzhou No.1 Butler” brand. Compared to popular e-commerce businesses in the market, the company's “home delivery” has room for growth in market segments: (1) The target group of the mall is the elderly and housewives, etc., who are both the main subscribers of Guangzhou Daily and the main purchasers of household products to achieve clear positioning; (2) this target group is not very fond of online shopping, yet it has the habit of reading newspapers, providing a possibility of demand for newspaper orders or telephone orders; (3) Daily necessities or household goods generally weigh more, making field purchases extremely difficult for the elderly or housewives. “Home delivery” Last-mile delivery easily achieves peer-to-peer Delivery to solve customer problems. We believe that “Home Delivery”, a local segmented shopping mall, has strong competitive advantages and huge potential customers, and has great potential for development. Risk warning: The performance of the M&A target falls short of expectations, and subsequent integration work is poor.

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