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【国泰君安】东力传动:由中国高速传动中报看东力传动

國泰君安 ·  Sep 22, 2009 00:00  · Researches

By analyzing the China High Speed Transmission (0658.HK) report, I hope it will be helpful to understand the gearbox industry and the growth model of Dongli Transmission. The conclusion is: (1) Wind power gearboxes have maintained a rapid growth trend, and product prices and profitability have remained stable. (2) Metallurgical gearboxes have picked up, mainly due to the characteristics of industrial consumables. (3) Joining hands with ALSTOM to expand the high-speed rail field began to bear fruit, and the high-speed rail business began to realize revenue. The growth of China's main high-speed transmission industry is in line with our expectations. During the reporting period, China's high-speed transmission achieved revenue of 2,033 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.6%, and net profit of 254 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, equivalent to an EPS of 0.20 yuan. However, net profit increased by 37.8% year over year after deducting changes in convertible bonds, stock swaps, and changes due to early termination of stock swaps, etc., in line with our expectations. The gross margin of China's high-speed wind power gearboxes has been rising steadily. The gross margin for the first half of this year was 30.99%, a slight increase of 1 percentage point compared to 29.97% last year, mainly due to cost improvements and product structure optimization. It is expected that product structure optimization will drive gross margin to maintain a steady upward trend. China's high-speed transmission metallurgy gearbox business exceeded expectations. The first half of this year achieved revenue of 162 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.79%, mainly due to an increase in the operating rate of the industry. The high-speed rail urban rail business of China High Speed Transmission and ALSTOM has entered a harvest period. Revenue began to be realized in the first half of this year, and is expected to begin a period of explosive growth tomorrow, driving performance to usher in another rapid increase in performance. As another listed company in the gearbox industry, Dongli Transmission's business structure and growth stage are similar to China's high-speed transmission in the early days of high growth in 2004 (revenue increased fourfold in the past four years). “It started with metallurgy, joined hands with downstream giants, and expanded into other fields.” For Dongli Transmission, the recovery of the metallurgical industry and import substitution are the main driving forces for performance growth this year and next two years; the wind power gearbox business developed by Zhejiang Yunda and Zhengzhou Machinery is about to break out of the cocoon, driving 2011 into a period of rapid growth.

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