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【国泰君安】东力传动:即将进入新一轮上升期

國泰君安 ·  Sep 17, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Little giant of metallurgical transmission. As a private enterprise that grew up in Ningbo, the company experienced nearly 20 years of focused development and became a leading metallurgical gearbox enterprise. In 2009, the company's revenue was 530 million yuan, of which 70% was metallurgical support. The wind power business is about to break out of its cocoon. Through cooperation with the Zhengzhou Machinery Research Institute, a leading research and development agency for gearboxes in China, the company has successfully developed wind power gearbox samples. Currently, final tests are being carried out, which may pass successfully in October. At the same time, the company is also preparing to launch additional distribution and invest in wind power gearbox projects. According to the review procedures of the Securities Regulatory Commission, it is estimated that it will attend the conference in the next two months. The competitive pattern for wind power gearboxes is worry-free. Wind power gearboxes are not profiteering products. For high-speed transmission in China, the gross margin of its wind power business is only 27.7% below its average gross margin by 1.1 percentage points. Judging from the unit price, it has stabilized at 650,000 yuan/MW for the past five years. Coupled with high technical barriers, there are not many entrants to the industry. According to statistics, the situation of excessive wind power gearboxes was not visible until 2012. The recovery in the steel industry has led to a recovery in demand for gearboxes. The life span of metallurgical gearboxes is 3-5 years, and there is a high demand for renewal and transformation. Coupled with the demand brought about by the integration and elimination of backward production capacity in the steel industry, the demand for new production capacity accounts for a small share of performance gearbox demand, only 40%, and the impact on the industry in the past year has been less than that of other sub-industries. Recently, the operating rate of the steel industry has continued to rise, and some companies are producing at full capacity, driving up investment in fixed assets, including gearboxes, and company orders are improving. Dongli Transmission: A follower of high-speed transmission in China. As a domestic gearbox leader, China's high-speed transmission revenue has increased fourfold in the past four years, mainly due to the company's decisive selection of mainframe giants to enter rapidly growing downstream markets at the right time, such as joining hands with GE to enter the wind power sector and ZF to enter the marine sector. The next step is to join hands with ALSTOM to enter the high-speed rail and urban rail fields. Looking at it now, Dongli Transmission is replicating the successful model of high-speed transmission in China, and we look forward to this with optimism. A high-growth, weak-cycle company with a reasonable value of 20 yuan/share. The company expects the company's EPS for the next three years to be 0.66 yuan, 0.86 and 1.16 yuan respectively. Based on comparative and DCF valuations, we think the value is reasonable at 20 yuan/share.

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