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【国泰君安】东力传动三季报评述:业绩低于预期、但坚定看好业务前景

國泰君安 ·  Oct 27, 2009 00:00  · Researches

The company's three-quarter report fell short of our and market expectations, as well as the company's interim report expectations. In January-September, the company achieved revenue of 399 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55%, and net profit of 74 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.81%, equivalent to an EPS of 0.41 yuan, which is lower than our and market expectations, as well as the company's forecast for the “third quarter increase of no more than 50%” in this year's interim report. The fall short of expectations was mainly due to a sharp reduction in the scale of revenue recognition. The company's revenue confirmation for the third quarter was only 142 million yuan, lower than in the second quarter, and achieved an EPS of 0.15 yuan in the third quarter, which was lower than our expectations. We previously had optimistic expectations for the company's third quarter revenue report based on two points: (1) the rising operating rate of the steel industry led to a recovery in gearbox demand; (2) production of high-power heavy-duty gearboxes reached the end of August. The actual situation confirms our view: the company's on-hand orders have now reached about 350 million yuan, which is higher than the level of the first quarter report and the interim report of 200 million; in addition, the situation of high-power heavy-duty gearboxes reaching post-production orders is promising, and import substitution is the main driving force for growth. The delay in revenue recognition may be related to a slowdown in the progress of additional distribution. The country's recent restrictions on the expansion of production in industries with overcapacity have also affected wind power gearboxes. The company's additional development project is being approved by the Development and Reform Commission. Currently, there is no news. It is expected that it may be postponed until the beginning of next year, but there should be no doubt that the increase will finally pass. The company's financial data is normal, and the business situation is in line with our previous expectations. Despite the delay in the end of the meeting, the company is currently carrying out plant and other infrastructure work in the early stages of the wind power project, and the delay in additional production will have little impact on performance. Therefore, we have basically maintained our performance forecast for the next two years, lowered this year's EPS to 0.58 yuan, maintained an investment rating of “increased holdings” and a target price forecast of 20 yuan. Opportunity and risk warning: If the stock price fluctuates greatly due to performance temporarily falling short of expectations, it is recommended to actively “increase holdings”. The company's uncertainty comes from the time it took for the Development and Reform Commission and the Securities Regulatory Commission to pass the additional issuance.

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