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【长江证券】江苏通润:订单结构有分化,业绩总体仍平稳

長江證券 ·  Apr 25, 2013 00:00  · Researches

Revenue in the first quarter increased slightly year on year and declined month on month: The company's revenue in the first quarter continued the trend of year-on-year growth in the previous period. Although the 8.85% growth rate was down from 24.54% in the fourth quarter of 2012, it was still up from 5.13% in the third quarter. Overall, the company's revenue was relatively stable. Based on the annual report data, we expect that domestic sales of high and low voltage switch cabinets will still be the main source of the year-on-year increase in the company's revenue. On a month-on-month basis, revenue for the first quarter fell 11.60% month-on-month. Judging from inventory data, it is probably due to the fact that some orders were settled centrally in the fourth quarter of last year, making the base figure relatively large. The increase in raw material prices led to a slight decrease in gross margin from month to month, and net profit remained stable: in the first quarter, the company's gross margin fell slightly to 20.05% from 21.89% in the fourth quarter of 2012. The increase in raw material prices and steel prices was the main reason, but overall gross margin remained stable. Although the company's gross profit declined month-on-month in the first quarter, the decline in expenses and impairment losses caused operating profit to increase slightly month-on-month. Overall, the company's net profit level has been relatively stable since 2011. Expenses fell in the first quarter, and inventory levels rose slightly: the company's total expenses in the first quarter were 28 million yuan, down from 33 million yuan in the fourth quarter of last year, mainly due to lower management expenses. The company's inventory at the end of the first quarter was 199 million yuan, a slight increase from 181 million yuan at the end of 2012, but it is not at a very high level compared to the previous period. The company expects a year-on-year increase of -10% to 30% in net profit attributable to the parent company from January to June 2013. According to this estimate, the company's EPS for the second quarter was 0.03 yuan to 0.07 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of -27.02% to 48.77%. The large fluctuation is mainly due to the year-on-year decline in export orders currently in hand, and there is some uncertainty. It is expected that the restructuring of the industry will bring further profit growth: the 100KW photovoltaic inverter product developed by the company and the PV System Engineering Research Center of the Ministry of Education has obtained the Golden Sun certificate issued by the CQC and obtained production qualifications; the 500KW photovoltaic inverter has also passed the CQC certification test. Entering the new energy industry will further improve the company's product structure and bring new long-term growth points to the company. The company's 2013 and 2014 EPS are expected to be 0.17 yuan and 0.19 yuan respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.

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