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【第一创业证券】斯米克:江西产能释放,力拓中端市场

第一創業 ·  Mar 15, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The Jiangxi base is fully put into operation, and ceramic tile sales are expected to increase by more than 50% in 10 years. In 10 years, the company's production capacity of 15 million square meters in Jiangxi is expected to reach full production. The capacity utilization rate is expected to be 80%, increasing production of 12 million square meters of mid-grade ceramic tiles. Since the company had little involvement in the mid-range ceramic tile market until now, production capacity has been drastically released. The company said it will make corresponding adjustments in management and management. The focus of the 10-year work will shift from the previous focus on management and internal control to focusing on market development. Considering the contribution of additional production capacity, the company's ceramic tile sales are expected to grow by more than 50% in 10 years, reaching more than 19 million square meters. The increase in the share of mid-grade ceramic tile sales has led to a small increase in the average sales price of the company in 10 years. The company plans to achieve sales revenue of more than 1.4 billion dollars in 10 years, an increase of 50% over the previous year, mainly due to the increase in sales volume of mid-grade ceramic tiles. However, considering the increase in the company's share of mid-grade ceramic tile sales in 10 years, and the price of mid-grade ceramic tiles is lower than that of high-end tiles, in the case where the overall price of the ceramic tile market has rebounded, due to changes in the company's product sales structure, the overall average sales price of ceramic tiles has rebounded relatively little, and is expected to be about 3%. The lower cost of ceramic tile production at the Jiangxi base has led to a decline in the company's overall costs. Since the Jiangxi base uses coalbed methane as a raw material, the price of coalbed methane with the same calorific value is more than 60% lower than the current price of natural gas; furthermore, the maintenance expenses of the new production line are less, and the labor costs in Jiangxi are also lower than that of Shanghai, and the raw materials such as colored glazes used in mid-grade tiles are lower than that of high-end tiles, we judge that the production cost per unit of ceramic tiles at the Jiangxi base will be 25-35% lower than that of the Shanghai base. Due to the increase in the share of product sales at the Jiangxi base in 10 years, the company's unit product cost is expected to drop 4% compared to 2009. Inventory management will be taken to the next level. Since the company has more than 5000-6000 SKU codes for its products, and sales outlets need to maintain stocking volume, the inventory level remains high. In the future, the company will continue to step up its inventory management efforts and gradually reduce the variety of SKU products that are not ideal for sale. In addition, fewer SKUs for mid-range tiles will also help with future inventory management. It is expected that the company's inventory turnover days will drop to around 120 days in the next few years. The 10-year performance improved significantly, but the valuation was too high and the rating remained neutral. Against the backdrop of the release of production capacity and the recovery of the ceramic tile market, the company's 10-year performance will improve drastically, and operating income is expected to increase by more than 50%, while net profit growth will be close to 90% due to the recovery in profit margins. However, the 10-year PE corresponding to the company's current stock price is 107 times, which is at a high level for similar companies in the industry, and continues to maintain a neutral rating.

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