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【招商证券】沃尔核材:风电项目获批,新能源、新材料齐头并进

招商證券 ·  Jun 25, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Last week, Wall Nuclear Materials attended the mid-term investment strategy meeting we held, and we had further communication with the chairman. The company was doing well in the first half of the year. The approval of the two wind power projects not only brought stable cash flow, but more importantly, Wall was able to use this opportunity to enter the field of wind power cable accessories, with a market size of tens of billions of dollars every year. Wall has expanded from the field of new materials to the new energy market. The two promote and penetrate each other, so high growth can be expected in the future. Reiterating the “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating, the target price is 12 yuan. The wind power project has been approved, and it has entered the field of new energy, and its performance is very flexible. Wall recently announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Qingdao Wall has been approved for two local wind power projects with an installed capacity of 48.6 MW, with a total investment of 850 million yuan, a construction period of 1 year, an estimated annual feed-in electricity capacity of about 200 million kilowatt-hours, and an investment payback cycle of 8-10 years. According to information, the price of wind power in Qingdao is 0.61 yuan/kilowatt hour, and the subsidy is 0.06 yuan. Whether calculated from feed-in tariffs or return on investment, the project will bring about 100 million dollars in net profit every year after completion. Compared with the net profit of 85 million last year, performance elasticity is very high. Wind power busbars are expected to replace traditional cables and drive the growth of traditional businesses. In addition to the stable cash flow brought about by wind power operation itself, it is more important that Wall used this opportunity to enter the field of wind power cable accessories. For example, wind power busbars replace wind power cables, which reduce costs by 20% and have high current carrying capacity, and are widely used in large-scale power projects. The unit price of a high-end fire-resistant busbar is 1,000 yuan/meter, and the gross margin is high. A wind power project requires 3-4 million related products. At present, wind power busway products have been in trial operation for 8 months, and customer feedback is good, and it is more likely that they will pass certification to enter the wind power market in the future. The price of heat-shrinkable tubes is expected to increase under the win-win model. Wall and co-actors currently hold more than 10% of Changyuan's shares, and the outcome of the equity dispute is even more clear. The domestic heat shrinkable tube market is very polarized. The unit price of high-end products is 5-10 times that of low-end products. Last year, Ruikan sold more than 14 billion yuan in China, and was used in aerospace, military, medical, etc. However, the low-end market is mainly monopolized by Wall and Changyuan, with an overall market of 20 to 30 billion yuan. The price competition between the two companies was fierce, and some products were even shipped at a loss. We believe that if the two sides reach a settlement, the price of heat shrinkable tubes is expected to rise by 20-30% in the low-end market to ease the pressure of vicious competition. Investment advice: Reiterate the “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating. The Qingdao wind power project has been launched and will contribute profits starting in 2016, and the performance is highly flexible. It is determined that Wall's high performance growth this year will benefit from technical replacement and standard upgrades for fire-resistant cables in the long term. In the future, we are leading industry integration, and the expansion of new energy sources will gradually begin. Wall Nuclear Materials is expected to have an EPS of 0.23 and 0.33 yuan in 14/15, with a target price of 12 yuan. Risk warning: The promotion of fire-proof cables falls short of expectations.

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