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【海通证券】天津普林(002134):跨越到HDI 领域、成长性谨慎乐观

海通證券 ·  Apr 24, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  Main business analysis. The company specializes in single-panel, double-panel and multi-layer PCBs, and the product structure is still relatively simple. Revenue growth in the last three years has come from an increase in the share of double-sided and multi-layer board products. The gross margin of the product is higher than that of its peers, mainly due to its multi-variety, small-batch order model. Furthermore, the increase in global raw material prices has led to an increase in the price of industrial products this year and a reduction in the company's own outsourcing processes, all of which have increased the gross profit margin of the product. Competitiveness analysis. The company's products are relatively simple and the production scale is relatively small. It is not prominent among consumer PCB companies, but its customers are mainly European customers and have strong competitiveness in the field of industrial control, and the company is still under pressure to upgrade technology to HDI PCBs. Analysis of recruitment projects. The HDI PCB market has good prospects. It is a mainstream technology development direction in the future, and it is also a new field with high gross margin. The company has started first-stage HDI production in 2007, has mastered all technology, completed second-stage R&D, and has the conditions for small-batch production. We believe that Tianjin Pulin joined the HDI competition in 2007, and market competition will inevitably intensify in 2008 and 2009. The company's commissioning time is still a bit late, but we are still cautiously optimistic about its prospects. Profit forecast. According to Haitong's profit forecasting model, we expect the company's diluted earnings per share from 2007 to 2009 to be 0.33 yuan, 0.44 yuan, and 0.53 yuan, respectively. Investment advice. We believe that a reasonable target price for the company after listing is around 11 to 13 yuan/share, but given the company's qualifications, a certain discount should be given. It is more reasonable at around 11 yuan. Compared with the issue price of 8.28 yuan, there is a 32.85% premium space, so it is recommended to subscribe. Major uncertainties. The share of the company's export products is close to 60%, facing the risk of exchange rate fluctuations; whether capital raising projects can be completed on schedule; industry cycle fluctuations, tax rate changes, and the current long-term growth momentum of the main business is insufficient.

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