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【广发证券】宏达高科:成功转型加速业绩提升,业绩承诺凸显安全边际

廣發證券 ·  Mar 1, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The main textile industry is facing bottlenecks in expanding, and becoming stronger and deeper. As the share of production of middle and high-end cars declines year by year, there is not enough incentive for the company to further expand its main product, automotive interior fabrics. At the same time, environmental pressure in the textile industry and the labor-intensive characteristics of the industry have made it more difficult for companies to grow. The company's position on the main textile business is to strengthen and deepen, and implement product restructuring. While continuing to strengthen automotive interior fabrics, we will increase the revenue share of functional fabrics in sports and health care series, and vigorously explore medical-specific textile products with broad market prospects. After acquiring Wilder and entering the medical device industry, they promised future performance and acquired 100% of Wilder's shares through additional issuance. After the merger, the asset structure, profitability, and operating efficiency of listed companies were greatly improved. At the same time, the company promised that if Wilder's actual profit for any of the 10, 11, or 12 years did not reach the promised value, the difference would be covered by the subscribing party in cash to the listed company. The promise provides a guarantee for the high growth of the company's performance. According to our forecast, Wilder's net profit for the next few years should be higher than the promised value, which will give the company a strong margin of safety. According to the itemized valuation, the company's safety margin is 17.34 yuan in the textile sector: the estimated EPS for the year 11 and 12 will be 0.13 yuan and 0.15 yuan respectively, and the corresponding stock price will be 2.95 yuan; in the medical sector: the EPS for the year 11 and 12 is expected to be 0.27 yuan and 0.34 yuan respectively, giving 32 times PE in 12, and the corresponding stock price of 11.02 yuan. Long-term equity investment: 10.33 million shares in Haining Picheng, with a market value of 510 million yuan, corresponding value per share of 3.37 yuan. The total value per share of the company should be $17.34. Since Weald's profit contribution is expected to exceed expectations and Haining Leather's stock price still has room to rise, the stock price of 17.34 yuan should be a margin of safety, which is the bottom of the company's value. The current stock price is 16.09 yuan, which is still below the margin of safety, giving it a “buy” rating for the first time. Risks indicate low expectations for market development and profitability of Weilde Super products; systemic risks in the textile industry.

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