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【兴业证券】冠福家用:加速推进“五天实业”的复制战略

興業證券 ·  Dec 14, 2007 00:00  · Researches

  Shanghai Wutian Industrial is positioned as a regional operations headquarters and logistics headquarters. Currently, Shanghai Five Day Industrial has two major functions: on the one hand, it is responsible for the distribution of supermarkets and stores in East China; on the other hand, it acts as a platform for the implementation of the company's overall strategy, and is responsible for the development of businesses such as large stores of hotel supplies, household goods and living centers (thousand stores project), online shopping, and international trade. The strategy of Shanghai Five Day Industrial has been successfully implemented. The company will use Five Day Industrial as a template and replicate it in Beijing, Shenyang, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Chengdu and other regions. The various strategies of Shanghai Five Day Industrial are being promoted at an accelerated pace. The current progress of various businesses of Shanghai Five Day Industrial is as follows: the Hotel Supplies Store (Hercules Hotel Supplies Store) is expected to officially open on December 20 this year; the company has opened a 10,000 square meter ceramic, glass, kitchen equipment, office supplies, etc. exhibition hall in Shanghai; household goods, living room and online shopping personnel are already in place, and product screening and development are currently being carried out, and related work is being prepared. The replication of the five-day industrial model progressed faster than expected. The establishment of the Northeast Household Products Distribution and Management Center marks the company's official beginning to replicate the Shanghai Five-Day Industrial model. We originally expected the company to start replicating the Shanghai Five-Day Industrial Project after it has fully benefited. Currently, the Shanghai Hotel Supplies Store will open on December 20, but it has not yet produced any benefits. The implementation of the company's strategy is faster than we expected. The actual investment amount of the project is around 200 million yuan. In order to benefit from land acquisition costs and taxes, the Shenyang Bohe New Town Management Committee requires the company to invest 1.05 billion yuan. We have learned from the company that the actual investment amount is estimated to be around 200 million yuan, of which 459.36 million yuan is for land, 100 million yuan for fixed assets, and 50 million yuan for working capital. In the context of credit crunch, the company has accumulated a certain amount of risk. Although the company's current balance ratio is only 47.1%, according to the company's current asset size, it should not be a problem to lend the bank 2-3 billion yuan (Dehua Guanlin Bamboo and the Northeast Household Products Distribution Center invested about 300 million yuan in total), but in 2008, in the context of tightening national credit, the company's operating risk will also increase. After all, the company's current operating cash flow is tight (for example, the operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2007 was -1.55 million yuan), but the long construction cycle has greatly reduced capital pressure, and the company still has the ability to finance in the secondary market. Maintain the company's “Recommended” rating. We maintain the company's forecast of $0.42, $0.60, and $0.77 in EPS for 07-09, and $0.77, respectively. We believe that family business owners are responsible for the company, and we also believe in the management ability of the company's management. We are still optimistic about the company's long-term development prospects and continue to maintain the company's “recommended” rating.

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