share_log

【广发证券】金螳螂三费分析:下行与收敛的期待

廣發證券 ·  Sep 3, 2012 00:00  · Researches

The three-fee rate for Gold Mantis has been continuously reduced in recent years, and the industry is gradually leading the way. This trend is expected to continue, but the rate of compression will slow down significantly and a trend towards an equilibrium level will begin. We estimate that the three-rate rate is expected to reach 2.47% in 2012, and the three-rate rate is expected to reach 2.05% in 2014. Compared with the assumption that the three-rate rate has remained stable since 2011, Gold Mantis's net interest rate increase from 2012 to 2014 due to the reduction in the three-rate rate could reach 0.42%, 0.64%, and 0.70%. This study starts with the three-fee itemized cost, uses a linear regression method to analyze the historical trend of gold mantis and itemized expenses in the industry (mainly the correlation between itemized expenses and sales and net profit), and screened the most reasonable fitting method (whether there is a linear relationship and whether it is a fixed value) to measure the three-fee compression space for gold mantis from 2012 to 2014. Finally, a reasonable explanation is given for the scope of the calculation based on a judgment on the company's future fundamentals. The sales expense ratio has declined rapidly, but the trend of convergence is also very obvious. We estimate that the sales expense ratio is expected to reach 1.08% and 0.93% in 2012 and 2014. There is a certain linear relationship between employee remuneration, hospitality expenses, and project-related expenses in segmented expenses with sales and net profit; the ratio of employee remuneration, office expenses, and other expenses is on a downward trend, the ratio of office expenses continues to decline, and the ratio of hospitality travel expenses and advertising expenses remains stable. Management expense ratios have declined slowly but there has been no trend towards convergence. We estimate that the three rates for 2012 and 2014 are expected to reach 1.49% and 1.22%. There is a certain linear relationship between employee remuneration, depreciation and amortization expenses, hospitality expenses, and tax with sales and net profit in segmented expenses; the ratio of depreciation and amortization expenses and hospitality travel expenses is on a downward trend, and the ratio of employee remuneration, office expenses, and other expenses continues to decline, and the tax ratio remains stable. The financial expense ratio has remained negative for a long time, and we anticipate that the future ratio will also stabilize at -0.10% of the financial rate for a long time. There are three reasons why the rate continues to decline: the scale of individual projects is expanding and the management cost ratio is declining; opening up markets outside the province by directly establishing branches rather than mergers and acquisitions can significantly reduce related costs; the brand effect greatly reduces channel costs; and the continuous maturity of full-process business acceptance capabilities and continuous improvement in management efficiency will cause related rates to continue to decline. Risks suggest that Gold Mantis's management capabilities have fluctuated too much; additional potential unleashed by leading companies in the process of industry concentration; and major changes in financial policies.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment