The cause of the report: the company's share price rose 17.17% in two days, and the turnover increased from 0.10% to 50 million in the previous period to 250 million yesterday and 510 million today. Here, we will comment on the incident.
The performance declined rapidly in the first half of the year, and the decline from January to September is expected to increase due to the dual impact of the surge in domestic excess capacity and the decline in demand growth. The company's performance shrank significantly in the first half of the year, with operating income down 15.14% and net profit down 62.53%. According to the performance forecast, the company's net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies from January to September was 3100-43.5 million yuan, down 65-75% from a year earlier.
Although the peak season price increase is expected, but the profit situation is still worrying with the gradual approach of the peak consumption season, the demand for transport packaging paper is expected to periodically be stimulated by Christmas exports and the increase in goods during the Lunar New year. According to public information, leading companies Nine Dragons Paper and Liwen Paper have announced price increases from this month, with a price increase of 50 yuan per ton. And it is brewing to set a price every two weeks for a period of time in the future, which will help to improve the profitability of production enterprises with packaging paper as the main business. However, the domestic excess capacity is increasing year by year, and the improvement in profitability will be impacted by the market. It is expected that the future operating situation of Jingxing Paper Industry is still worrying.
According to the conclusion of the study, we believe that there are three main reasons for the abnormal changes of the company's stock price: 1, the early stock price has fallen too much (already broken net), and there is an objective need to overfall and rebound; 2, a large number of shares have expired and the main participating institutions have been tied up. Institutional funds need to be saved; 3, leading enterprises are brewing to raise prices again, and the news that the good news is just a good opportunity for high shipments.
From a fundamental point of view, the operating condition of the company is difficult to improve in the short term; from a technical point of view, the daily average is suppressed by multiple moving averages, the long-term downward trend of the stock price has not been corrected, and the stock price is currently on the Bollinger line and may fall at any time. At the same time, the trading volume was released but failed to seal the trading limit, indicating that short sellers have occupied a greater advantage.
We judge that the rise of the company's stock price may have reached the ceiling, there is the possibility of downward adjustment, it is recommended that the position be reduced.
Risk hint: after the stock price is stimulated by good news, there is a need for adjustment, the support level is 2.25 yuan, and the "underweight" rating is given.