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【海通证券】久联发展公司深度报告:背靠保利,民爆业务整合平台

海通證券 ·  Jul 24, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: Guizhou's pop leader. Jiulian Development currently has an explosives production capacity of 199,000 tons/year. In the 2013 ranking of the gross domestic product of the commercial explosion industry, Jiulian Development ranked fourth among national manufacturers and first in Guizhou Province. In terms of industrial explosives production and industrial detonator production, which are the two most important indicators of civilian explosives equipment manufacturers, the company ranked 3rd and 13th respectively in the country, and is in a leading position in the industry. Expanding the business to the whole country. In 2007, the company established a holding subsidiary, Gansu Jiulian Civil Bomb Co., Ltd., through asset acquisition and merger, and the company expanded its civil explosion business to Gansu Province. In 2012, the company acquired part of the shares of Henan Shenwei Company, and the company expanded its commercial explosion business to Henan Province. At the end of 2012, the company set up a subsidiary in Tibet. The development business of Jiulian is gradually expanding throughout the country. The civilian bombing industry in western China continues to develop. Under the Western Development Strategy, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the western region is higher than the national average, thus driving the growth in demand for civilian explosions in the western region. Furthermore, the implementation of the “Belt and Road” strategy will also boost economic growth in the western region. Jiulian Development's main business is located in western provinces such as Guizhou and Gansu, and future performance growth is guaranteed. Backed by Poly, a platform for central enterprises to integrate private explosion business. In 2014, Poly Group joined Jiulian Development and became its actual controller, and the controlling shareholder of Jiulian Development changed to Poly Jiulian Group. By the end of 2015, Poly Jiulian Group plans to complete the integration of the Banhua Group's commercial explosion assets, and plans to inject Panhua Group and the rest of the commercial explosion assets under Poly Jiulian Group (100% of Poly Chemical, 70% of Yinguang Minbang, and 50.6% of LiMinbang) into Jiulian Development in an appropriate manner. Jiulian Development will become an integrated platform for Poly Group's commercial explosion business. After the integration of the above assets is completed, the explosives production capacity of Jiulian Development will increase to 442,500 tons/year. Profit forecasts and investment ratings. We believe that benefiting from the development of the western region and the “Belt and Road” policy, fixed asset investment in Guizhou and the western region will maintain high growth in the next few years, and the civilian explosion industry in the western region will continue to develop rapidly, and Jiulian development will benefit from this. Furthermore, as Poly Group enters Jiulian Development, Jiulian Development will become an integrated platform for the commercial explosion assets under the Poly Group. It is expected to become a leading domestic bomb enterprise nationwide, while overseas business will also gradually expand. We expect the company's EPS from 2015 to 2017 to be 0.53, 0.81, and 1.11 yuan respectively (based on the total share capital of 509 million shares after the completion of this additional offering). According to 2016 EPS and 55 times PE, we gave the company a target price of 44.55 yuan and gave it an investment rating of “increased holdings”. Risk warning: (1) Uncertainty in demolition work orders. (2) The risk of a sharp rise in the price of ammonium nitrate. (3) Asset injection progress has fallen short of expectations. (4) Overseas business expansion falls short of expectations.

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