The company's business is gradually coming out of the doldrums. The company is located in the golden waters of the Nanjing section of the Yangtze River and is the largest port transportation enterprise for the transit and storage of petroleum and liquid chemical products in inland rivers in China. Since the beginning of this year, the company's performance in crude oil, liquid chemical industry and oil products has improved significantly. The crude oil business, as the company's core business, mainly benefits from the following aspects: 1) the upstream refinery is gradually expanding its production capacity and increasing demand for crude oil; 2) the structure of crude oil has been relatively improved; the proportion of crude oil in crude oil shipments with high loading and unloading efficiency has increased; 3) the company has stepped up market development efforts to win new shippers in the hinterland to carry out crude oil loading and unloading business in the company. The refined oil business has also improved significantly, mainly because the completion and commissioning of Huiyang Company, the company's holding subsidiary, has improved the company's gasoline and diesel oil transfer volume to a certain extent, which has contributed to a breakthrough in the company's refined oil loading and unloading volume and income.
The company's 2010 performance is expected to increase by 190-220%, and investment income is still the main influencing factor. At present, the substantial pre-increase in the company's performance is mainly due to the following aspects: 1) after the company's holding subsidiary Nanjing Huiyang Terminal was officially put into operation in the second half of 2009, the performance is good; 2) the Longtan Container Company of Nanjing Port, which is a shareholder of the company, has obviously improved, contributing 5.68 million yuan to the company's investment income in the first half of the year, and is expected to contribute about 10 million of the company's investment income for the whole year. 3) at the beginning of the operation of the Yangzhou Storage Terminal of Sinochem in 2009, due to the economic situation and the reasons that have not yet been fully completed, the company suffered a loss to a certain extent. In 2010, with the complete completion and operation of the company, the operating condition improved obviously, and the investment income in the first half of the year was 1.74 million yuan.
Treat the restructuring of Nanjing Port Bureau, the major shareholder of the company, cautiously. On December 30, 2009, Nanjing SASAC and Sinotrans Changhang Group reached a cooperative intention on the restructuring and reorganization of Nanjing Port Bureau. according to the announcement, there will be results in the first half of 2010, but there will be no results until June 30, 2010. Personnel placement is still the main obstacle to the current restructuring. After the previous failure of the restructuring of COSCO Group and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, we are cautious about the results of the current strategic restructuring of Sinotrans Changhang Group.
Earnings forecast and rating: the company's future performance is gradually coming out of the trough and rising steadily. We estimate that the EPS for 2010-2012 will be 0.09,0.10,0.11 yuan, corresponding to the price-to-earnings ratio of 100,90,82 times, the performance still can not support the current stock price, the high price-earnings ratio is mainly the expectation of future restructuring, we give the rating of "prudent recommendation-B" for the first time.
Risk hints: macroeconomic fluctuations and the uncertainty of restructuring.