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【天相投资】南京港:净利润同比减少39.87% 第三季度基本无盈利

天相投資 ·  Oct 29, 2009 00:00  · Researches

From January to September 2009, the company achieved operating income of 101 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.38%; operating profit of 9.4796 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.95%; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company: 76213 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.87%; and an EPS of 0.03 yuan. Among them, net profit attributable to owners of the parent company was 531,500 yuan in July-September, a year-on-year decrease of 80.37%; an EPS of 0.002 yuan was achieved. The main reasons for the decline in the company's performance are: 1. The decline in investment income. The company holds 25% of the shares in Nanjing Port Longtan Container Company, and its contribution to investment income accounts for about half of the company's net profit. However, in the first half of this year, due to the negative impact of the international financial crisis on the real economy, the container industry collectively entered a cold winter, and investment returns declined significantly. It contributed 3.7737 million yuan in investment income in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.23% of the company's net profit in the first half of the year, down 25.83% from the same period last year. 2. The company holds 40% of Sinochem's shares in Yangzhou, and the company achieved investment income of 1,504,700 yuan in the first half of the year. 3. As a result of the construction of the four Yangtze River bridges, anchors No. 1, 2, and 3 at the company's Qixia anchorage cannot be used. The annual passage capacity of crude oil from the sea into the river has declined significantly, from 18 million tons to 7.2 million tons. The Qixia anchorage restricted the market expansion of the company's Haijingjiang crude oil transit business through reduced capacity, and restricted the company's market development of other types of transit operations between the two rivers. 4. Since the opening of Sinopec's Changling-Yizheng oil pipeline, the company's main crude oil handling business has faced tremendous diversion pressure. In recent years, its business volume has been in a continuous decline. Crude oil transportation revenue in the first half of the year reached 33.56 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%. It is expected that the company's revenue from liquid chemicals and refined oil products will remain stable in the fourth quarter, while revenue from the crude oil business, which accounts for the largest share of revenue from the main business, will continue to decline. We believe that the prospects for the company's current main business are limited, and its short-term growth mainly depends on the investment income of participating companies, but since the scale of investment is limited and the container industry is still difficult to recover in the short term, it is difficult to have a significant impact on overall performance; in the long run, the company's focus is more on the possibility of major shareholders' asset injection and regional port business integration. The company's EPS for 2009 and 2010 is estimated to be 0.045 yuan and 0.065 yuan respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE as high as 181 times. Currently, the valuation is too high, and there is no margin of investment safety. Maintain a “neutral” rating. Risk warning: Continuing to be affected by the financial crisis, container throughput in Longtan may continue to decline; affected by international oil prices, suppliers and traders have reduced their accumulation of refined oil products, leading to a decrease in the company's gasoline and diesel transit volume.

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