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【华泰证券】南京港调研简报:10年业绩回升,非业绩因素仍是股价波动主因

華泰證券 ·  Mar 24, 2010 00:00  · Researches

In 10 years, as upstream refineries began to gradually expand production capacity, it is expected that processing capacity will double within the next 3 years, and the company's crude oil business is expected to bottom up and rise. The estimated 10-year delivery volume is more than 4 million tons. The crude oil business is currently the largest business in the company's main business, with revenue of nearly 70 million yuan in 2009. The gradual improvement in the crude oil business is beneficial to the stability of the company's performance. In 10 years, we judged that the company's main business had a slight surplus, and profitability improved slightly. In 10 years, return on investment will continue to be the company's primary source of profit. Longtan Container Terminal Company, which holds 25% of the company's shares, had a throughput of 1.06 million TEU in 2009. In 10 years, with the recovery of the domestic economy and the further improvement of the export situation, container throughput is expected to maintain an increase of 15% or more. Longtan Container Terminal Company is expected to contribute about 8 million yuan in investment income to the company in 10 years. Sinochem Yangzhou Wharf Co., Ltd., which holds 40% of the company's shares, was in the early stages of business in 2009 and is expected to lose more than 7 million yuan for the whole year, causing the company to lose about 3 million yuan in investment. In 10 years, as the company enters the normal course of operations, it will turn a loss into a profit. According to preliminary estimates, the company is expected to achieve an investment income of about 9 million yuan in 10 years. The Nanjing Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission introduced Sinotrans Changhang Group as a strategic investor, and work is underway to carry out a group restructuring of the Nanjing Port Authority. According to the announcement at the beginning of the year, there will be concrete results in the first half of the year. Similar to the previous opinion, the surplus of personnel is still the main obstacle to the restructuring of the Port Authority. Furthermore, strong support from local governments for the restructuring of the Port Authority is also essential. Following the failure of the last time the COSCO Group restructuring was introduced, it is expected that both parties involved in the restructuring will be more realistic, and the possibility of a successful restructuring will increase. The company's performance report shows 2009 results of 0.03 yuan, and the estimated earnings per share for 10-11 are 0.04 yuan and 0.05 yuan. Results do not support current stock prices. The main factors that cause the company's stock price to fluctuate are still non-performance factors. Based on market conditions, there are two main factors affecting the company's stock price: 1. Expectations about the restructuring of listed companies after the restructuring of the Port Authority; 2. Rumors about the company's shell sale. As for the former factor, it depends on the situation of the Port Authority after the restructuring. Looking at the current asset situation of the Port Authority, apart from some of the assets in the Longtan Port Area, there are no highly profitable assets. Moreover, the Port Authority only holds part of the shares in the company where the above assets are located. If the introduction of Sinotrans Changhang Group can successfully resolve issues such as personnel placement and governance mechanisms of the Port Authority, the profit level of the port group companies formed after the restructuring will gradually increase, which will benefit the long-term development of listed companies. However, even if the restructuring is successful, it cannot be expected to significantly improve the fundamentals of listed companies in the short term. Improving the performance of listed companies will be a lengthy process. The rumor about shell sales has been around for several years. According to research, we are unable to confirm the truth of the rumor. However, judging from the fact that the Port Authority is undergoing restructuring and the need to maintain financing channels in the future, we tend to think that it is less likely that shell resources will be sold in the short term. In the short term, the main factor stimulating the company's stock price will still be mainly news related to the restructuring of the Port Authority. If there is a sharp rise in stock prices at that time, it would be a good time to sell. Give the company a “wait and see” rating.

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