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【安信证券】久联发展:保利入主集团下公司在民爆和军工领域有望获得大发展

安信證券 ·  Sep 4, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Incident: We recently participated in an investor exchange with Jiulian Development and communicated with management on the company's fundamentals. Poly joined Jiulian Group and promised to put in Minbang assets, and the industry's giant set sail: the company previously announced that Poly Group increased its capital to Jiulian Group by a total of 1.36 billion yuan with some of its assets and cash, holding 51% of its shares as the controlling party, and became the actual controller of Jiulian Development. Poly will inject its assets such as Poly Chemical, Yinguang Minbang, and Poly Minbang into listed companies within 60 months of implementing the acquisition, and the industry will rise as a giant. The internal and external integration of the civilian explosion business will bring about major development: First, in terms of internal integration of civilian explosives, the company has a production capacity of about 200,000 tons, mainly distributed in Guizhou, Gansu, Henan, and Xinjiang; while Poly's production capacity is about 170,000 tons, distributed in Liaoning, Jiangxi, Shandong, and Xinjiang, the production capacity is highly complementary. Once injected into the company in the future, it will become the largest civilian bomber enterprise in China, and its competitiveness will be greatly enhanced. Second, Poly Energy Mining Company has more coal and metal mineral resources, and there is a high possibility that the outsourcing department will cooperate with Jiu in the future, which is conducive to Jiulian's development from municipal engineering blasting to mine blasting services. More importantly, in the future, the Poly Jiulian Group and listed companies will rely on the Poly central enterprise background, and the pace of mergers and acquisitions of external Minpop companies may be greatly accelerated in the future. We expect that in the future, Jiulian Development will become the Group's Minbang asset integration platform. Military cooperation may far exceed market expectations, opening up the valuation ceiling: The company's subsidiary, Gansu Jiulian, announced on August 25 that it has obtained military equipment approval. Since the company's main business is the production and sale of civilian explosives, we judge that the future military direction may become one of the company's R&D and production business directions, and through the military background of the Poly Group, there is a lot of room for imagination in domestic and foreign military trade channels and variety development, opening up the valuation ceiling. Investment advice: We believe that the entry of Poly Group into the Group will become an important milestone in the company's development. The company's civilian explosion production capacity is expected to double in the future, and at the same time, there is much room for military business development to exceed expectations. Without considering future asset injections, we expect the company's 14-16 EPS to be 0.77, 0.94, and 1.15 yuan, respectively, giving a buy-A rating and a target price of 20 yuan, which is 21 times the corresponding 15-year PE. Risk warning: risk of mergers and acquisitions progressing less than expected, risk of civil explosion accidents, etc.

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