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【安信证券】久联发展:全球民爆业巨擎腾飞

安信證券 ·  May 27, 2015 00:00  · Researches

The pace of integration of the civilian explosion industry is accelerating, and the development of Jiulian is expected to become the center of integration: as a highly sensitive industry, integration is a major trend. The “12th Five-Year Plan” of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly called for increased concentration and the formation of 3-5 leading enterprises. After Poly joined, Jiulian Group also set a domestic integration target of 1 million tons of industrial explosives production capacity in 3-5 years. At the same time, the State Council's State-owned Assets Administration Commission agreed that Poly would make civil explosives one of the five major businesses. We judge that in the future, Poly will drive the integration of the domestic commercial bombing industry, and Jiulian, as the only platform for listed commercial bombing companies under the Group, is expected to become an industry integration center in the future. The Belt and Road Initiative provides major overseas opportunities, and Jiulian's development resources are unique: the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative as a national strategy is self-evident, and the Poly Group has placed the Belt and Road Initiative in a very important position. At the same time, Poly Technology and China Textile Group, a subsidiary of Poly, have a large amount of resources overseas as leading enterprises in military and civilian goods trade, respectively. However, infrastructure did not take precedence over civil explosions. At the same time, the poly military trade channel is very conducive to the expansion of the civilian bombing industry. We believe this is an advantage that other domestic explosives enterprises do not have. The extension of the industrial chain is the general trend, and the direction of blasting integration is clear: the extension of the industrial chain of commercial explosives to blasting services will greatly increase revenue and profit levels (10,000 tons of explosives sold only 100 million, while the total export through blasting services can reach 800-900 million). Currently, there is a lot of room for the company to increase revenue from blasting services (only about 10% of its products have been integrated), and quantitative changes have been continuously accumulated. At the same time, under the influence of the company's qualifications, the improvement of civil explosion technology and capabilities, and the endorsement of Poly Group, we believe that the blasting business will soon usher in a period of qualitative change. Military goods can be expected: Civilian bombs and military goods are just compartments. Earlier, shortly after Poly joined Jiulian, the Jiulian Development subsidiary announced that it was qualified to manufacture military equipment. Since the company's main business is the production and sale of civilian explosives supplies, we judge that the future direction of military products may become one of the business directions of the company's R&D and production. Considering Poly Technology's military background, we believe that in the long run, military industry may become one of the potential development fields of listed companies in the future, which is worth paying attention to and tracking. Continue to be firmly optimistic about becoming a giant engine in the global civil bombing industry, maintaining a “buy-A” rating, with a target price of 70 yuan: We believe that through the integration of domestic production capacity, international strategic layout, the expansion of integrated bombing, and the development of future military products business, Jiulian Development may become a giant in the global civil bombing industry in the future. We believe that the company's current market value of around 20 billion dollars is clearly undervalued (considering additional dilution), so investors are advised to focus on it! The first target price is 70 yuan. Risk warning: The progress of integration falls short of expectations

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