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【安信证券】久联发展:保利集团入主正式完成,继续看好公司成为民爆巨擘

安信證券 ·  Jan 20, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company announced that after the Poly Group completed the commercial and commercial changes to Jiulian Group's capital increase and became the actual controller of Jiulian Group, Poly Jiulian Group recently reduced its holdings of the listed company by about 0.26%, thus reducing Jiulian Group's shareholding in Jiulian Development to less than 30% and avoided initiating a takeover offer. The Poly Group has officially joined, and a new chapter has begun: the company announced that the industrial and commercial changes of the Jiulian Group have already been completed, and the recent management changes of the group company and the listed company have also come to an end. The group's shareholding changes to avoid initiating a takeover offer indicate that the Poly Group has officially taken over. After the change of majority shareholders, we believe that a new chapter in Jiulian's development has begun. It is one of the best targets for state-owned enterprise reform, and it is optimistic that it will become a global pop giant: the company previously announced that Poly Group will increase its capital of Jiulian Group by a total of 1.36 billion yuan with some of its assets and cash, holding 51% of its shares as the controller, and has become the actual controller of Jiulian Development. Poly will inject its assets such as Poly Chemical, Yinguang Minbang, and Poly Minbang into listed companies within 60 months of implementing the acquisition, and the industry will rise as a giant. At present, the new term of the Poly Jiulian Group has been completed, and the replacement of subsequent listed companies will begin in the near future. We believe that the drama of integrated development of listed companies is about to begin. We are optimistic about Poly's strength and determination to develop in the field of civilian explosions, and believe that the future development speed and space of listed companies in the fields of blasting services, integration of civilian explosion production capacity, and internationalization of civilian explosions will exceed market expectations. Development speed and space or surpassing market expectations: First, in terms of internal integration of civilian explosives, the company has a production capacity of about 200,000 tons of civilian explosives products, mainly distributed in Guizhou, Gansu, Henan, and Xinjiang; while Poly's production capacity is about 170,000 tons, distributed in Liaoning, Jiangxi, Shandong, and Xinjiang, there is strong complementarity of production capacity. Once injected into the company in the future, it will become the largest civilian bomber enterprise in China, and its competitiveness will be greatly enhanced. Second, in terms of blasting services, Poly Energy Mining Company has more coal and metal mineral resources, and there is a high possibility that the outsourcing department will cooperate with Jiu in the future, which will facilitate Jiulian's development from municipal engineering blasting to mine blasting services. At the same time, we believe that the ability of listed companies to obtain orders will increase significantly in the future. More importantly, in the future, the Poly Jiulian Group and listed companies will rely on the Poly central enterprise background, and the pace of mergers and acquisitions of external Minpop companies may be greatly accelerated in the future. We expect that in the future, Jiulian Development will become the Group's Minbang asset integration platform. We are optimistic about the speed and space of future development and maintain purchases: We believe that the entry of the Poly Group will become an important milestone in the company's development process. The company's civilian explosion production capacity is expected to double in the future, and at the same time, the development space for blasting services with the support of central enterprises is also worth looking forward to. Without considering future asset injections, we expect the company's 14-16 EPS to be 0.77, 0.94, and 1.15 yuan, respectively, maintaining the buy-A rating and target price of 20 yuan for the time being, corresponding to a 15-year PE of 21 times. Risk warning: risk of mergers and acquisitions progressing less than expected, risk of civil explosion accidents, etc.

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