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【光大证券】南京港:估值水平较高,首次给予“中性”评级

[Everbright Securities] Nanjing Port: the valuation level is high, giving a "neutral" rating for the first time.

光大證券 ·  Feb 16, 2011 00:00  · Researches

The company's loading and unloading business will maintain steady growth: in 2010, the company's crude oil business handling volume remained stable at more than 4 million tons, due to an increase in the proportion of crude oil from ships with higher handling rates. we expect the company's crude oil handling revenue to increase by more than 7.0% compared with 2009. The company has long-term cooperation with China Petroleum & Chemical Corp and other large petrochemical enterprises along the Yangtze River, and is currently actively striving for the supply of small and medium-sized enterprises in the hinterland. The company's transformation of 608 and 609 terminals will increase the original loading and unloading capacity from 20, 000 tons to 30-50, 000 tons.

The new breakthrough in the company's refined oil business is mainly due to the completion and commissioning of Huiyang Company, a subsidiary of Huiyang Company. we expect the company's oil loading and unloading volume and revenue to increase by about 40.0% compared with 2009. We believe that the company will increase the construction of facilities and actively seize the market in the future.

The loading and unloading volume and income of the company's liquid chemicals business are basically the same as in 2009. We believe that the company's liquid chemical business will maintain rapid growth in the future, mainly because during the construction of the Yizheng Industrial Park in the direct economic hinterland of the Yizheng Port area, this will ensure the growth of the company's cargo volume; moreover, there are also chemical parks under construction in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and the goods connection between Yizheng Chemical Park and these chemical parks will also bring the growth of the company's cargo volume.

The performance of Nanjing Longtan Container Co., Ltd. increased significantly in 2010: the company holds a 25.0% stake in Nanjing Port Longtan Container Co., Ltd. in 2010, we expect the container company to complete container loading and unloading of more than 1 million TEU, an increase of more than 25.0% over the same period last year, and a net profit increase of more than 50.0% over the same period last year. Container companies have a certain monopoly advantage in Nanjing area, which will benefit not only from the economic development of Nanjing area, but also from the development of the surrounding Wanjiang city belt and other areas.

The restructuring of the controlling shareholder has no impact on the company: the company's controlling shareholder, Nanjing Port Bureau, is restructured, Sinotrans Changhang Group holds 45.0% of the restructured Nanjing Port Group with cash, and Nanjing SASAC holds 55.0%. According to the contents of the agreement, restructuring does not affect the company. However, we believe that Sinotrans Changhang Group, as a central enterprise, is a comprehensive shipping enterprise that can realize the whole logistics services of ocean, coastal, Yangtze River and canal. It has many subordinate enterprises, which is potentially beneficial to the future business development of the company.

The company has a high valuation level and is given a "neutral" rating for the first time: the company is committed to the development of the main port industry, and it is expected that the future handling business revenue will maintain a steady growth trend. We forecast that the EPS from 2010 to 2012 will be 0.10,0.12 and 0.14 yuan respectively. The company has regional advantages. Recently, the State Council issued opinions on speeding up the development of inland waterways such as the Yangtze River, and improving the navigation capacity of ships will help to improve the company's cargo volume, but at present, the valuation level is high, and we give it a "neutral" rating for the first time.

The risks that affect the company's performance include a sharp decline in economic growth, a decline in oil demand, diversion of crude oil pipelines and customers' self-built transit terminals in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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