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【安信证券】久联发展:重大合同中标验证爆破业务提速,继续看好公司成为民爆巨擘

安信證券 ·  Jan 5, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company announced that its subsidiary Xinlian Blasting Group won the bid for the urban backbone road and area development and construction project from Jiujietan to Huichuan Avenue in Huichuan District (three-section project). The construction projects were earthwork square leveling, earth-containing blasting, excavation, etc. The total investment is about 530 million yuan (determined according to actual conditions, the amount is expected to be lowered). The successful bid for a major contract validates the acceleration of the blasting business: We believe that the company's winning bid project this time is of great significance. This construction project is mainly an earthwork site blasting project, not the company's original main municipal BT project involving road construction. Therefore, the repayment cycle is shorter and the profitability will be stronger. This is in line with the company's previous goal of reducing the share of municipal projects and shifting to blasting services. Furthermore, although the investment amount will be reduced from the original 530 million yuan, this is still the largest blasting service order in the company's history, which is of iconic significance. One of the best targets for state-owned enterprise reform is optimism that it will become a global pop giant: the company previously announced that Poly Group will increase the capital of Jiulian Group by some of its assets and cash totaling 1.36 billion yuan, and hold 51% of its shares to become the controller, making it the actual controller of Jiulian Development. Poly will inject its assets such as Poly Chemical, Yinguang Minbang, and Poly Minbang into listed companies within 60 months after implementing the acquisition, and the industry will rise as a giant. At present, the new term of the Poly Jiulian Group has been completed. Subsequent terms, including the listing of Poly Group and the replacement of listed companies, etc. will begin soon. We believe that the drama of integrated development of listed companies is about to begin. We are optimistic about Poly's strength and determination to develop in the field of civil bombing, and we believe that in the future, the pace and space of listed companies in the fields of bombing services, civil explosion production capacity integration, and the internationalization of civil bombing will exceed market expectations. The pace and space of development of explosives integration and bombing services may exceed market expectations: First, in terms of the internal integration of civil explosives, the company has a production capacity of about 200,000 tons of explosives supplies, mainly distributed in Guizhou, Gansu, Henan, and Xinjiang; while Poly's production capacity is about 170,000 tons, distributed in Liaoning, Jiangxi, Shandong, and Xinjiang, the complementarity of production capacity is strong. In the future, once injected into the company, it will become the largest domestic explosives enterprise, and competitiveness will increase greatly. Second, in terms of blasting services, Poly Energy Mining Company has a large number of coal mines and metal mineral resources, and it is more likely that the outsourced part will cooperate with Jiu in the future, which is conducive to the development of Jiulian from municipal engineering blasting to mine blasting services. At the same time, we believe that in the future, the ability of listed companies to obtain orders will increase markedly. What is more important is that in the future, Poly Jiulian Group and listed companies rely on Poly's central enterprise background, and the pace of mergers and acquisitions of external commercial bomb companies may be greatly accelerated in the future. We expect that in the future, Jiulian Jiulian Development will become a platform for integrating the Group's commercial bomb assets. We are optimistic about the speed and space of future development. The current stock price may be underestimated, and keep buying: We believe that Poly's entry into the Group will be an important milestone in the company's development process. In the future, the company's commercial explosion production capacity is expected to double. At the same time, the development space for exploding services with the support of a central enterprise background is also worth looking forward to. Without considering future asset injections, we expect the company's EPS for 14-16 to be 0.77, 0.94, and 1.15 yuan respectively, maintaining the buy-A rating and target price of 20 yuan, which is 21 times the corresponding 15-year PE. Risk warning: risk of mergers and acquisitions progressing less than expected, risk of civil bombings, etc.

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