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【华泰证券】华星化工:存货销售完毕,行业景气度开始上升

華泰證券 ·  Nov 5, 2009 00:00  · Researches

Judging from this year's situation, product prices in all links of the glyphosate industry chain are low, industry profit margins are being compressed, and the industry's gross profit level is also low. Glyphosate products have returned to fundamentals after ups and downs. The company's glyphosate product inventory has basically been sold, and the proposed asset impairment preparations will gradually recede. The prices of the company's pesticides, such as insecticide double and insecticide single, are relatively stable. Currently, prices are between 16,000 and 17,000 yuan/ton, down about 2,000 yuan/ton from the same period last year. Since the company has mainly invested in glyphosate in recent years, the production capacity of these two products has not increased, and production has not changed much compared to previous years, making it a relatively stable source of profit for the company. Huaxing Chemical is currently striving to expand upstream and downstream of glyphosate in an effort to build the first upstream and downstream integrated industrial chain in China. The company is currently operating a production capacity of 15,000 tons of glyphosate, and a new plant is under construction of a 20,000 ton glyphosate production facility. Additionally, Anhui Xingnuo Chemical Co., Ltd., which has a 50% share, has a production capacity of 20,000 tons of diglyphosate, and the company's equity production capacity of 40,000 tons of glyphosate has reached 40,000 tons. The huge production capacity of glyphosate also requires a lot of raw materials. Based on the material consumption ratio for glyphosate production, the demand for iminodiacetonitrile is around 36,000 tons, phosphorus trichloride is over 44,000 tons, and caustic soda is over 100,000 tons. The company has already begun an overall relocation project for the old factory area. According to the agreement signed with the county government, the company will gradually relocate in batches to the fine chemical base in Anhui Province. The base will provide the company with 1,500 acres of construction land, which can fully meet the future land use needs of the company's relocation and construction projects. The old factory area covers an area of 500 acres. The initial acquisition cost was low, so there is more room for appreciation compared to the current surrounding land prices. The old factory area is close to the Wujiang Bawangci Scenic Area. It may be planned as a tourist project in the future, and it is also close to the Yangtze River, so it can be built as a logistics base. In the future, development and utilization may be carried out mainly by Anhui Hexian Huaxing Real Estate Development Company, a real estate company controlled by the company. The growth of the company's performance in the next three years will mainly depend on the volume and price recovery of glyphosate products. It is estimated that in 2010, the average sales price of glyphosate is 30,000 yuan/ton, the sales volume is about 25,000 tons, and the gross margin will rise to 25%. Under the assumption that real estate business income is not taken into account, the company's earnings per share in 2009, 2010, and 2011 are expected to be 0.33, 0.61, and 1.10 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding price-earnings ratio levels are 32, 18, and 10 times. We believe that companies with integrated upstream and downstream industrial chains should receive valuation premiums. Giving the company a price-earnings ratio of 20 times in 2010 is reasonable, and the corresponding company's reasonable stock price is 12.2 yuan, giving it a “recommended” rating.

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