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【东莞证券】华星化工:最困难时期已经过去

東莞證券 ·  Mar 12, 2010 00:00  · Researches

The fourth quarter saw another loss. In 2009, the company achieved operating income of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.05%; realized net profit attributable to owners of the parent company of 0.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.13%; and basic earnings per share of 0.02 yuan. Judging from quarterly data, the company achieved operating income of 196 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2009, up 29.7% year on year and a decrease of 18.6% month on month; net profit attributable to the parent company was -41 million yuan, a decrease of 19.3% year on year, and a sharp decrease of 698.2% month on month. The sharp year-on-year decline in glyphosate prices was the main reason for the decline in performance. The average sales price in 2009 was about 22,400 yuan/ton, compared to 72,400 yuan/ton in the same period last year, down 69.01% from the previous year. Export revenue in 2009 was 407 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 61.78% over the previous year. Fortunately, the company increased its domestic sales efforts, with domestic revenue of 459 million yuan in 2009, a sharp increase of 47.28% over the previous year. We believe that the balance of the company's domestic and foreign revenue will ease the impact of exports on the company's performance, and will help the company to grow bigger and stronger in the future. Real estate projects will become a new source of profit. In order to pay compensation for Huaxing's relocation, in addition to providing 1,500 acres of land for the company to build a new factory area, the county government also gave the company a certain amount of land for real estate development. For this reason, the company specially became a subsidiary Huaxing Real Estate Development Company, which will become a new growth point for the company's performance. The most difficult period is over, and the company's rating was raised to “Cautious Recommendation.” The company is one of the leaders in the pesticide industry in China, with a rich variety of products and a reasonable structure. Currently, the products include more than 80 varieties of more than 30 original drugs in the three major series of pesticides, herbicides, and biocides, all of which are highly efficient, low toxic, and low residue varieties, which are in line with the development direction of the national pesticide industry policy; in addition, the company has begun to develop downstream formulations of original drugs, further enhancing the company's competitiveness. We expect the company's EPS forecasts for 10 and 11 to be 0.46 yuan and 0.75 yuan respectively, corresponding to dynamic price-earnings ratios of 27.13 times and 16.51 times, respectively. At present, glyphosate prices have shown a restorative rise, and the company has new projects contributing to profits. We believe that the most difficult period for the company has passed, and we have upgraded the company's rating to “careful recommendation.”

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