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【招商证券】德豪润达:增发完成,拐点确定性提高

招商證券 ·  Jun 13, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Dehao Runda announced the completion of the additional issuance. We believe that shareholders' interests will converge after the implementation of the additional issuance, and internal governance is expected to improve. EPS for 14-16 is estimated to be 0.2/0.33/0.4 yuan (after dilution). The fundamental trend is improving, the certainty of operating inflection points has increased, and the target price of 10 yuan and the “Prudent Recommendation - A” rating have been maintained. Additional distribution to majority shareholders and Wu Changjiang has been completed, and shareholders' interests are more consistent. Dehao announced the completion of the issuance of 0.23 billion additional shares. Among them, Wuhu Dehao, the majority shareholder, subscribed for 0.1 billion shares and Wu Changjiang subscribed for 0.13 billion shares, holding 9.3% of the shares, making it the second largest shareholder. We believe that the main significance of the completion of the additional distribution for the company is: 1) the rationalization of shareholders' interests. At the same time, Dehao will purchase more chips from Dehao in the future, and the synergy between the two is expected to be smoother; 2) the completion of the additional distribution will reduce Dehao's financial expenses by 10 million per month, and operating cash flow will improve significantly. The chip trend is improving, and investment in flip-chip chips will increase in the future. We have learned that monthly sales of Dehao chips have been improving since this year, reaching 0.12 billion yuan in May. According to industry experience, the monthly output value of 0.1 billion yuan is basically in line with the scale of 50 units, and 60-80 million is the break-even point for most chip manufacturers. As production capacity climbs later, profits are expected for the first time throughout this year. At the same time, the flip-chip that the company is focusing on has already been mass-produced. As the market grows and matures, it is expected that its flip chip will receive more orders. If the promotion is successful, the remaining 40 devices will be used for flip products. Various lighting channels are already in place, and the Rex channel is expected to gain strength. Rex has nearly 3,300 specialty stores across the country, and the coverage rate in prefecture-level cities has exceeded 97%. We judge that after Wu Changjiang takes a stake in Dehao, Dehao's shipments to the Rex channel are expected to increase rapidly. Furthermore, Whirlpool and AEG are well known in North America and Europe respectively, and the cooperation between Dehao and its brands has opened up breakthroughs in the local market and brought great flexibility to Dehao's overseas sales. They will increase their holdings in the future, and the relationship between the two is expected to be further straightened out. Currently, Dehao holds about 27% of the shares in Rex' listed companies. According to the current shareholding ratio, Dehao's return on investment in Rexroth is confirmed in the form of investment income (confirmed at 27% since May). Considering the need to strengthen the cooperative relationship between the two sides in the future, it is not ruled out that Dehao will continue to increase its shareholding in Rex in the future. Maintaining “Prudent Recommendation -A”: We believe that shareholders' interests will converge after the Dehao additional issuance is completed, and internal governance is expected to improve. EPS for 14-16 is estimated to be 0.2/0.33/0.4 yuan (after dilution). Although the current stock price is not undervalued in line with this year's performance, the fundamental trend is improving, and the certainty of the operating inflection point is increasing. We maintain the target price of 10 yuan and the “Prudent Recommendation - A” rating. Risk warning: The increase in LED lighting penetration rate falls short of expectations; there is a risk of integration with Rexroth resources.

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